Laitetaan täytteeksi myös hieman jutustelua toisilta forumeilta. Tämä on tosin vain keskustelupalstojen ajatustenvaihtoa, mutta mielestäni aika fiksua sellaista.
Tätä voisi kai pitää optimistisena näkemyksenä Egyptin tilanteesta:
"Could he go Tiananmen even if he wanted to? Most of the soldiers are conscripts, they've already made clear that their sympathies are with the people, and Mubarak doesn't have the option of bringing in units from distant provinces, who don't speak the language. He also (AFAIK) doesn't have anything equivalent to the basij paramilitaries that the Iranian leadership uses when it isn't sure of the security forces' loyalty.
On the other hand, if he _doesn't_ go Tiananmen at this point, he's a goner. So maybe -- _maybe_ -- Admin's statement about reviewing the aid package is an attempt to show him the writing on the wall.
I don't think a promise to stand down in September would be enough -- Ben Ali's promise of free elections in six months wasn't enough for the Tunisians. I see the best option at this point as being a caretaker unity government including the military, the ruling party and the opposition, with a fixed one to two-year term, a mandate to reform the constitution, and a schedule for a constitutional referendum and general election.
And as for fear of Islamism, which I think is overrated in this instance, suppression of this revolutionary movement (which was organized and led by the secular opposition and appears to have caught the ikhwan somewhat by surprise) will ensure that what's left of secular civil society is crushed and that the MB is the only opposition faction left standing. That would pretty much guarantee that the _next_ revolution _will_ be Islamist.
In any event the time to worry about an Islamist takeover is when there's a credible threat of one, not when the people are standing up for their freedom against a bloody dictator. But I think you agree with me on this."
Tätä taas ei:
"Yeah, probably. Though that window is rapidly closing, the generals win under the Mubarak system and don't if, say, a national unity government takes over (MB-Ghad-Wafd-Kefeya) so, they could remove Mubarak and kill everyone, elevate Suleiman.
Mubarak still has the Interior Ministry and all that bad news, if not for another parallel arm. Still, the way that the UK-France-Germany is acting is the same as the US is acting; not going to shove, but not going to rescue, either."
Best,
J. J.