Todellisuus

Keskustelu => Yleinen keskustelu => Topic started by: Kourumies on March 17, 2014, 19:48:24

Title: Ukrainan tilanne ja muut Venäjän ja Itä-Euroopan asiat
Post by: Kourumies on March 17, 2014, 19:48:24
Avaan tänne uuden ketjun Ukrainan tilanteelle ja sitä sivuaville aiheille. Laitan ehtimisen ja osaamisen mukaan tänne myös käännöksiä tai tiivistelmiä venäjän-, valkovenäjän-, ukrainan- ja puolankielisistä jutuista ja nettisivuista.

Tässä on nyt ensinnäkin yksi blogiote, joka vahvistaa omalta osaltaan sitä vaikutelmaa, että Putinin taustajoukoissa on nimenomaan tuota Breivikin ja Halla-ahon aateveljestöä:

http://anton-shekhovtsov.blogspot.fi/2014/03/pro-russian-extremists-observe.html

Sieltä löytyy varsinainen konnagalleria Krimin vaalitarkkailijoita:

* Itävallan vapauspuolue, se Haider-vainaan pulju;
* Belgian flaamien Vlaams Belang
* Bulgarian Ataka-puolue
* meidän Bäkkis
* Ranskan National Front
* Itä-Saksan entisten kommunistien irakilaistaustainen, ilmeisesti antisemiittinen jäsen
* kreikkalaiset kommunistit (Kusinen aamunkoitto ei tällä kertaa lähettänyt tarkkailijaa)
* Unkarin Jobbik
* Forza Italia
* Latvian venäläismieliset. Tatjana Zhdanok-parka on pahasti päässyt rupsahtamaan sitten viime näkemän.
* Puolan Samoobrona Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej, joka on lähinnä äärikeskustalainen, tai ainakin se alkuperäinen Samoobrona oli.
* Serbiasta ääriortodoksisia hörhönationalisteja
* Kataloniasta katalonialaisen äärioikeiston edustaja, mikä on sikäli erikoista, että katalonialainen nationalismi ei ole mitenkään yksiselitteisesti oikeistolaista - katalonian kieli joutui kärsimään Francon aikana.
* Venäjältä on joku uusstalinistisen kansallisbolsevikkikommarien edustaja. Näitä hörhöjä siellä piisaa, jotka yhdistävät natsismin ja stalinismin kaameimmat puolet.
* Jenkeistä joku serbialaissyntyinen muslimivihan lietsoja.

Persuille ja halla-aholaisille on tällä kertaa annettava tunnustusta siitä, että heikäläiset eivät lähettäneet tuonne edustajiaan. Mutta kaipa Bäkkis ajaa saman asian. Hän on vetänyt viime aikoina hymykampanjaa persuihin päin, ja ruotsinkielisiin kohdistuvan vihan lietsonnassa hän on nykyään vakavasti otettava kilpailija Suomalaisuuden liitolle
Title: Re: Ukrainan tilanne ja muut Venäjän ja Itä-Euroopan asiat
Post by: metrics on March 17, 2014, 19:56:50
Onko Bäckman tosiaan syntynyt 1971? Luulin selvästi vanhemmaksi.
Title: Re: Ukrainan tilanne ja muut Venäjän ja Itä-Euroopan asiat
Post by: Kourumies on March 17, 2014, 21:59:47
Onko Bäckman tosiaan syntynyt 1971? Luulin selvästi vanhemmaksi.

On se tuota ikäpolvea joo. Nuorehko mies jolla on vielä päällä nuoren miehen intohimot (and trust me, I know what I'm talking about). Tämän Venäjä-jutun taustalla on jokin henkilökohtainen sotku, monimutkainen suhdekuvio jonkun venäläistaustaisen mimmin kanssa.
Title: Re: Ukrainan tilanne ja muut Venäjän ja Itä-Euroopan asiat
Post by: Kourumies on March 17, 2014, 22:04:59
Nimimerkki "Putinistien herjaama jo ennen kuin se oli coolia" muistuttaa kohtalostaan Russia Today -kanavan kynsissä:

http://jalkijupinaa.blogspot.fi/2011/07/mina-ja-russia-today.html

Digiboksimme kanavanippuun tipahti jokin vuosi sitten hassu kanava nimeltä Russia Today, nyttemmin RT. Ilmiasultaan jotenkin hupaisa kanava tuntui paikoin sisällöltään vähän... kummalliselta.

Muiden muassa Toimittajat ilman rajoja- järjestö on kritisoinut RT:tä puolueellisuudesta, mikä ei ole kovin kummoinen ihme. Aloite kanavan perustamiseksi tuli nimittäin silloisen presidentti Putinin medianeuvonantajalta, joka myönsi suoraan Der Spiegelille että tarkoituksena oli perustaa kansainvälinen uutiskanava joka esittäisi asiat "Moskovan näkökulmasta".

Jenkkiläinen mediakritiikkijärjestö Accuracy in Media kaivoi peräti esiin ex-KGB -miehen, jonka mukaan koko RT on Venäjän ulkomaantiedustelu SVR:n operaatio. Tiedä häntä; varma olen ainoastaan siitä, että minulle tulee kyseisen jenkkipoppoon nimilyhenteestä AIM mieleen ihan toinen organisaatio.

Useimmille suomalaisille lienee aikalailla selvää minkälainen "Moskovan näkökulma" on. Jos Kreml ei ole raastupa, niin ei siitä yleensä ole uutistoimistoksikaan ollut. Otanpa kuitenkin piruuttanikin esimerkin. Huhtikuussa 2011 RT kertoi suomalaisen papin kovasta kohtalosta: hänet oli erotettu kirkosta koska hän sanoi terroristia terroristiksi! Kaiken kukkuraksi ex-pappi sai vielä käräjilä tuomiot "laillisesti toimivan järjestön kritisoimisesta" ("criticizing a legally operating organization").

Suomi on kova maa, kun terrorismista ei saa puhua ja laillisesti toimivia järjestöjä ei saa kritisoida (!?). Ellette jo ehtineet klikata linkkiä, arvatkaa huviksenne kuka esiintyy kyseisessä artikkelissa RT:n Suomen-asiantuntijana? Aivan oikein: kuuluisa suomalainen ihmisoikeusaktivisti, oikeussosiologian desantti Johan Bäckman. Jutun pappi on tietenkin surullisenkuuluisa tosielämän eksorsisti Juha Molari, joka, uskokaa tai älkää, bloggaa RT:lle.

Itseään voi myös huvittaa Jussi Halla-ahon profetioilla palavista ghetoista Suomessa, jotka RT toistaa hupaisan kritiikittä.

Isommissa asioissa valehdellaan vielä isommin; Independentin Moskovan kirjeenvaihtaja kuvaili RT:n Georgian sodan seurantaa säädyttömäksi. Eräs RT:n toimittaja lähti kävelemään todettuaan että hänen ei annettu raportoida Georgian sodasta muuta kuin valtiovallalle sopivia uutisia.

Tiedustelupalvelujen osallistumiseen en ota sen kummemmin kantaa, mutta valtiovalta on Venäjällä kyllä kanavansa takana. RT:n rahoitus tulee suoraan Kremlistä, ja kun brittiläisen Guardianin Moskovan kirjeenvaihtaja kirjoitti kriittiseen sävyyn RT:stä, hän sai kyseenalaisen kunnian olla ensimmäinen Venäjän karkoittama brittitoimittaja sitten kylmän sodan lopun julkaistuaan Wikileaks-sähkeitä. Lieneekö RT-juttukin painanut vaakakupissa?

Columbia Journalism Review syytti RT:tä salaliittoteorioiden levittämisestä, ja ihan kanavaa katsomalla voi henkilökohtaisesti varmistua tämän syytöksen paikkansapitävyydestä. Hyvänä esimerkkinä toimii tämä pätkä, jossa niin Irakin kuin Libyan sotakin selittyy dollarilla; Gaddafi oli syrjäytettävä koska hän aikoi tuoda maailmanmarkkinoille kultavaluutan!



Tällaista roinaa odottaisi lukevansa NWO:istien blogeista tai Jouko Pihon näyistä, mutta siihen törmääminen kunniallisena esiintyvällä TV-kanavalla on surkuhupaisaa. On kuitenkin muistettava että RT:n pääasiallinen yleisö on Yhdysvalloissa, ja rapakon takana tällaiselle salaliittosekoilulle on todella laajat markkinat. New Republic -lehdessä on aiheesta ihan hyvä pätkä. Ilmeisesti juuri kova pyrkimys Amerikan markkinoille selittää myös sen, että joissakin RT:n ohjelmissa on otettu käyttöön Foxilta tuttu "toisilleen huutavat puhuvat päät" -formaatti, jonka katsominen on eurooppalaiseen mediaan tottuneelle ihmiselle aivan suunnattoman rasittavaa.

RT pyrkii esiintymään amerikkalaisille itsenäisenä kanavana, joka kertoo katsojilleen totuuden, jota "ne" eivät halua heidän kuulevan. Juuri tätä mielikuvaa ruokkimaan marssitetaan esiin erilaisia partajeesuksia mitä ihmeellisimmistä instituuteista, ja ainakin osaan jenkkiläisestä vaihtoehtoväestä tämä uppoaa. Ja juuri tätä kautta tämän kirjoittajakin on sekaantunut RT:n amerikanvalloitukseen.

Radley Balko on amerikkalainen toimittaja ja kansalaisaktivisti, jota tapasin arvostaa paljonkin. Hän on seurannut erityisesti Yhdysvaltojen oikeusjärjestelmän ja poliisin ihmeellisyyksiä, joista minun on ollut pidempään tarkoitus kirjoitella suomeksikin. Balkon Overkill: The Rise of Paramilitary Police Raids in America on peruslukemistoa kenelle tahansa USA:n huolestuttavasta poliisin militarisoitumiskehityksestä kiinnostuneelle, ja Balkon blogin seuraamista suosittelen yhä lämpimästi.

Nyttemmin on kuitenkin vaikea olla ihan niin kova Balko-fani. Jokin aika sitten kyseinen herra vieraili useammankin kerran RT:llä puhuvana päänä, ja siitä jäi aikalailla paha maku suuhun. Oma perustelu oli yksinkertainen: hän meni, koska pyydettiin. Minusta tuo oli vähän lepsu selitys, mutta asia muuttui pahempaan suuntaan kun Balko lähti lomalle ja kutsui hätiin vierasbloggaajia. Yksi heistä oli RT:n Alyona Minkovski.

Minua tämä häiritsi. Balko on hankkinut itselleen jonkun verran nimeä libertaarina kansalaisaktivistina, ja minusta ei ole ihan ongelmatonta että hän käy itse esiintymässä Venäjän valtion propagandakanavalla. Vielä vakavampaa on, että hän antaa samaisen propagandakanavan käytännössä mainostaa itseään bloginsa kautta. Minusta on jotenkin ihmeellinen kaksoisstandardi olla kovin kriittinen Yhdysvaltoja kohtaan poliisin tekemien julmuuksien vuoksi ja tehdä samalla yhteistyötä Kremlin kanssa. Ainakaan en pidä kovin kummoisena libertarismina sitä, että tehdään yhteistyötä Venäjän valtiontelevision kanssa. Kun herra itse protestoi välillä kovastikin sitä, että jenkkiläinen media ei kerro totuutta poliisiin liittyvissä asioissa, niin Venäjän valtio vaikuttaa kummalliselta petikaverilta jos tällaisista asioista välittää.

Minulla kun on sellainen etenkin bloggaamisessa ilmenevä luonteenvika että sanon mitä ajattelen, niin menin ja kirjoitin tästä englanniksi tekstin. Kävin piruuttani mainostamassa sitä Balkon blogissakin, tai oikeastaan rehellisesti sanoen vittuilemassa, koska en tehnyt sitä mitenkään erityisen rakentavasti. Olin kuitenkin pettynyt siihen, että Balkon vastaus minulle oli jotenkin niin vähä-älyinen. Hän on ilmeisesti jotenkin katkeroitunut siitä, että rapakontakaiset vasurit pitävät niitä libertaareja instansseja joihin hän on kirjoittanut suurpääoman saastuttamina, ja ylireagoi kaikkiin syytöksiin puolueellisuudesta. Ajattelin että noh, olen sanomiseni sanonut, ja jätin asian sikseen.

Vaan sainpa yllättyä. Neiti Minkovski itse olikin ohjelmansa jonkinlaisessa oheisvideossa kommentoinut blogipostiani, ihan esitellen sitä katsojilleen. Myönnän suoraan että mediaseurantani petti tällä kertaa, koska enhän minä katso tuollaisia ohjelmia. Tässä kyseinen pätkä:




Kyllä se jotenkin hivelee turhamaisen ihmisen mieltä että TV-persoona puhuu kalsareistani, vielä ihan omalla nimellänikin. Mutta jotenkin tuo kritiikki, jos se sellaisena on tulkittava, tuntuu kuitenkin menevän pahasti ohi. Arvon ankkuri tuntuu onnistuneen lukemaan blogitekstistäni sellaisen persoonallisen käsityksen, että muka väittäisin ettei hän saa arvostella omaa maataan. Se on minusta sikäli kummallista, etten mielestäni sanonut mitään siihen viittaavaakaan. Muutenkin edes pintapuolisen tutustumisen blogiini olisi luullut vakuuttavan että tuskin lähden sellaista esittämään. Tähdennän nyt kuitenkin että pidän noin yleisesti ottaen kaikenlaista valtiokritiikkiä yksinomaan positiivisena asiana. Ei sitä pitäisi kenellekänä tämänkään blogin lukijalle joutua liiemmin selittelemään.

Kritiikkini kohdistui tosiaan pääasiassa Balkon journalistiseen etiikkaan ja libertarismiin, mutta olihan tekstistäni luettavissa myös sen verran kritiikkiä neiti Minkovskia ja muita RT:n työntekijöitä kohtaan, että jos he tosiaan välittäisivät ihmisoikeuksista ja sensellaisesta, niin he ehkä valitsisivat jonkin muun keinon edistää niitä kuin yhteistyön Venäjän valtion propaganda-aparaatin kanssa. Se, että Minkovski ei tähän kritiikkiin suostu vastaamaan ja vääristää sen päättömäksi valtiouskoksi, on itsessään aika selvä vastaus.

Suorastaan parhautta edustavat tuon videon kommentit YouTubessa, jossa ihmetellään kuinka joku voi olla niin typerä että haukkuu Minkovskia "anti-amerikkalaiseksi". Yksi kommentaattori epäili minun olevan Obaman kannattaja (?), ja toinen päätteli sukunimestä minun olevan juutalainen (!). Hieman ihmetyttää että jos kommentaattoreita kerran kiinnostaa kuka minä olen tai mitä ajattelen, eikö sitä olisi voinut kirjoittaa vaikka nimen Googleen (tai johonkin venäläiseen hakukoneeseen, joka varmaan heidän näkövinkkelistään antaa totuudenmukaisempia tuloksia) ja tutustua blogiini? Vähemmän vaivaa siihen menisi kuin YouTubeen kirjautumiseen ja kommentin kirjoittamiseen. Mutta ei, ja nyt voinkin lisätä "establishment tool" in ja juutalaisen (!?) saamiini haukkumanimiin.

Ihmettelen miksi Minkovski ja RT ovat yleensä lähteneet blogiini tuolla tavalla vastaamaan. Ainakin minusta tämä ei anna heistä kovin hyvää kuvaa. Lieneekö Balkon blogin kautta toteutettu propagandaoperaatio ollut RT:n väelle niin tärkeä, että sen saamaan kritiikkiin oli samantien iskettävä? Silloin vain ihmetyttää kovasti se, kuinka pliisu tuo vastaisku oli. Tuossa pätkässähän oikeastaan sanottiin vain, että joku minunnimiseni tyyppi on sanonut jotain tyhmää. Jos kerta eivät mitään edes puoliksi asiallista aio sanoa, niin olisivat edes kehittäneet jonkun kunnon ad hominemin, eikä vain tuollaista "bloggarilla meni kalsarit solmuun. Hihihi. Kalsarit" -retoriikkaa. Halla-ahozombeilta ja laasasboteiltakin on tullut parempaa dissausta. Ainakin välillä.

Mutta näin minä vain sain oppia, että olenkin kuuluisampi kun luulinkaan. Ei sitä ihan joka jannua ole Kremlin TV-kanavalla haukuttu!
Title: Re: Ukrainan tilanne ja muut Venäjän ja Itä-Euroopan asiat
Post by: Kourumies on March 17, 2014, 23:19:31
Lisää Aleksandr Podrabinekia Grani.ru'n sivuilta. Käännökseni on taas mitä on, siksi jätin alkutekstin näkyviin.

http://grani.ru/opinion/podrabinek/m.226636.html


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"Здравр?твуйте Мур?тафа-ага!". Так начал бер?еду по телефону р? лидером крымр?ких татар Мур?тафой Джемилевым президент Ѐ ор?р?ии Владимир Путин. Он был вер?ь из р?ебр? любезнор?ть, выдержаннор?ть и политкорректнор?ть. Бер?еда длилар?ь около получар?а.

"Tervehdys, Mustafa-agha!" Näin aloitti puhelinkeskustelunsa Krimin tataarien johtajan Mustafa Dzhemilevin kanssa Venäjän presidentti Vladimir Putin. Hän oli itse rakastettavuus, maltillisuus ja poliittinen korrektius. Keskustelu kesti noin puoli tuntia.

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Пор?ле победы революции на Украине Кремль упрр?мо уклонр?лр?р? от любых контактов р? украинр?кими политиками. С началом интервенции в Крыму Мор?ква вообще р?тала игнорировать любые украинр?кие предложенир? о переговорах или каком-либо другом взаимодейр?твии. Да и о чем говорить, когда рор?р?ийр?кие БТЀ  уже колер?р?т по вр?ему Крыму, а р?пецназ ГЀ У занимает ключевые военные и гражданр?кие объекты?

Vallankumouksen voitettua Ukrainassa Kreml kieltäytyi itsepäisesti kaikenlaisista kontakteista ukrainalaisten poliitikkojen kanssa. Krimin intervention alettua Moskova alkoi täysin jättää huomiotta kaikki ukrainalaisten ehdotukset neuvotteluista tai minkäänlaisesta vuorovaikutuksesta. Mistä olisi puhuttukaan siinä vaiheessa kun Venäjän panssarit jo vyöryivät pitkin Krimiä ja armeijan tiedustelun erikoisjoukot ottivat haltuunsa strategiset sotilas- ja siviilikohteet?

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Однако 18 февралр? некий приехавший в Севар?тополь выр?окопор?тавленный рор?р?ийр?кий чиновник передал Мур?тафе Джемилеву, что Владимир Путин хотел бы вр?третитьр?р? р? ним. Хотеть не вредно, но вр?треча р? малолегитимным рор?р?ийр?ким президентом в планы Джемилева не входила. Она могла бы его р?компрометировать, тем более что политичер?кар? целер?ообразнор?ть такой вр?тречи была вовр?е не очевидна.

Kuitenkin 18. helmikuuta joku Sevastopoliin saapunut korkean tason venäläinen virkamies ilmoitti Mustafa Dzhemileville, että Putin halusi tavata hänet. Saahan sitä haluta, mutta Dzhemilevin suunnitelmiin ei kuulunut tavata Venäjän presidenttiä, joka tuskin oli edes aivan laillisesti valittu. Tapaaminen voisi kompromettoida hänet, varsinkaan kun sellaisen tapaamisen poliittinen mielekkyys ei ollut aivan ilmeistä.

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Тут надо понимать, кто такой Мур?тафа Джемилев. В годы р?оветр?кой влар?ти он был дир?р?идентом, учредителем р?озданной в 1969 году Инициативной группы защиты прав человека в СССЀ . Уже тогда он был одним из р?амых извер?тных дер?телей национального движенир? крымр?ких татар, добивавшихр?р? возвращенир? народа в Крым, а позже р?тал нар?тор?щим национальным лидером. Шер?ть раз р?оветр?кие р?уды вынор?или ему р?вои приговоры, и он провел в лагерр?х, тюрьмах и р?р?ылках в общей р?ложнор?ти больше 15 лет.

Tässä kohtaa on syytä ymmärtää, kuka Mustafa Dzhemilev on miehiään. Neuvostoaikana hän oli toisinajattelija ja oli vuonna 1969 perustamassa Neuvostoliiton ihmisoikeusaloiteryhmää. Jo siihen aikaan hän oli Krimin tataarien kansallisen liikkeen tunnetuimpia puuhamiehiä. Liikkeen tavoitteena oli saada tataareille oikeus palata kotiseudulle. Myöhemmin hänestä tuli todellinen kansanjohtaja. Hän sai kuusi eri vankeustuomiota Neuvostoliitossa ja vietti leireillä, vankiloissa ja karkotuspaikoissa yhteensä yli viisitoista vuotta.

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Вр?треча р? Путиным была длр? него, мр?гко говорр?, необр?зательной. Однако украинр?кар? влар?ть и западные политики живут мечтой о диалоге р? Ѐ ор?р?ией, который р?кобы поможет разрешить р?итуацию в Крыму. Премьер-минир?тр Ѐ?рр?ений Яценюк и другие украинр?кие политики прор?или Джемилева не уклонр?тьр?р? от вр?тречи р? Путиным. Такое же пожелание выр?казал минир?тр инор?транных дел Турции.

Tapaaminen Putinin kanssa oli hänelle lievästi sanoen vapaaehtoinen. Kuitenkin sekä Ukrainan vallanpitäjät että lännen poliitikot haaveilevat dialogista Venäjän kanssa, joka jotenkin muka auttaisi ratkaisemaan Krimin tilanteen. Pääministeri Arseni Jatsenjuk ja muut ukrainalaiset poliitikot pyysivät Dzhemileviä olemaan kieltäytymättä tapaamisesta Putinin kanssa. Tällaisen toiveen ilmaisi myös Turkin ulkoministeri.

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11 марта депутат Верховной Ѐ ады Украины Мур?тафа Джемилев прилетел в Мор?кву. Вечером он вр?третилр?р? р? пор?лами Украины и Турции в Ѐ ор?р?ии, которые также прор?или его р?оглар?итьр?р? на вр?тречу р? Путиным. Пор?редником и организатором контактов р?тал бывший президент Татарр?тана Минтимер Шаймиев, который и ранее неоднократно зар?влр?л о р?воих намеренир?х вр?р?чер?ки помогать братр?кому крымр?котатарр?кому народу.

11. maaliskuuta Ukrainan korkeimman neuvoston kansanedustaja Mustafa Dzhemilev lensi Moskovaan. Illalla hän tapasi Ukrainan ja Turkin suurlähettiläät, jotka myös pyysivät häntä suostumaan tapaamiseen Putinin kanssa. Välittäjänä ja kontaktien järjestäjänä toimi Tatarstanin presidentti Mintimer Shaimijev, joka oli aiemminkin useaan otteeseen sanonut aikovansa kaikin tavoin auttaa krimintataarien veljeskansaa.

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12 марта Мур?тафа Джемилев вр?третилр?р? р? Минтимером Шаймиевым в предр?тавительр?тве Татарр?тана в Мор?кве. Пор?ле примерно чар?овой бер?еды наедине Шаймиев ушел в другую комнату, отр?утр?твовал минут дер?р?ть, а потом позвал Джемилева и приглар?ил его к телефону.

12. maaliskuuta Mustafa Dzhemilev tapasi Mintimer Shaimijevin Tatarstanin Moskovan-edustustossa. Noin tunnin mittaisen keskustelun jälkeen Shaimijev siirtyi toiseen huoneeseen, oli poissa kymmenisen minuuttia ja kutsui sitten Dzhemilevin puhelimeen.

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Говорил в ор?новном Путин, излагар? р?вою позицию в отношении Украины и Крыма. Джемилев был в некотором недоумении - Путин оперировал понр?тир?ми и аргументами, будто р?копированными из передач центральных каналов рор?р?ийр?кого телевиденир?. "Обычно главы гор?ударр?тв ир?пользуют р?ерьезную и хорошо подготовленную аналитичер?кую информации, а не пропагандир?тр?кую кальку", - говорит Джемилев. Впрочем, он р?читает, что Путин говорил ир?кренне.

Langan päässä oli Putin, joka selvitti positionsa Ukrainan ja Krimin suhteen. Dzhemilev ei ihan tiennyt missä mentiin - Putin operoi käsitteillä ja argumenteilla, jotka vaikuttivat Venäjän television pääkanavien lähetyksistä kopioiduilta. "Nykyään maiden päämiehet hyödyntävät vakavamielistä ja hyvin valmisteltua analyyttista informaatiota, eivät propagandan valmiita malleja", sanoo Dzhemilov. Hän on kuitenkin sitä mieltä, että Putin puhui rehellisesti.

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Мур?тафа Джемилев изложил Путину р?вой взглр?д на проблему, подчеркнув, что каким бы не было решение крымр?кого вопрор?а, главное - р?охранить целор?тнор?ть украинр?кого гор?ударр?тва. В ответ на р?то Путин р?ыграл в благородр?тво, зар?вив, что, защищар? р?уверенитет р?воей р?траны, именно так и должен говорить вр?р?кий порр?дочный человека, а он, Путин, знает, какой трудный жизненный путь прошел Джемилев, никогда не р?омневалр?р? в его выр?окой порр?дочнор?ти и очень его за р?то уважает. Поговорили о р?удьбе крымр?кой автономии. Джемилев р?казал, что вопрор? о рар?ширении прав крымр?кой автономии вполне можно рар?р?матривать, но не в момент прир?утр?твир? в Крыму инор?транных войр?к. Он отметил, что результата назначенного на 16 марта крымр?кого референдума не признают ни Украина, ни международной р?ообщер?тво. Кроме того, прир?оединение Крыма к другому гор?ударр?тву будет грубым нарушением территориальной целор?тнор?ти Украины и договора 1994 года, гарантирующего Украине р?охранение р?уверенитета в обмен на отказ от р?дерного оружир?. Владимир Путин в ответ упирал на необходимор?ть знать волю жителей Крыма и предлагал подождать р?о вр?еми решенир?ми до окончанир? референдума.

Mustafa Dzhemilev selvitti Putinille näkemyksensä ongelmasta korostaen, että miten Krimin kysymys sitten ratkaistaisiinkin, pääasia oli säilyttää Ukrainan valtion koskemattomuus. Vastauksena Putin heittäytyi ylevämieliseksi lausuen, että juuri tuolla tavalla jokaisen kunnon miehen pitäisikin puhua, sellaisen, joka puolustaa maansa suvereniteettia: hän, Putin, jos kuka tiesi, millaisen vaikean elämänpolun Dzhemilev oli joutunut kulkemaan, hän ei ollut koskaan epäillyt Dzhemilevin luonteen kunnollisuutta, vaan arvosti tätä syvästi. Puheeksi tuli Krimin autonomian kohtalo. Dzhemilev sanoi, että Krimin autonomian laajentaminen oli kysymys, josta saattoi aina keskustella, mutta ei sellaisessa tilanteessa, jossa Krimin alueella oli vierasmaalaisia joukkoja. Hän huomautti, että maaliskuun 16. päivälle määrätyn Krimin kansanäänestyksen tulosta eivät tunnusta sen enempää länsivallat kuin Ukrainakaan. Lisäksi Krimin liittäminen toisen maan alueisiin loukkaa karkeasti Ukrainan alueellista koskemattomuutta ja vuoden 1994 sopimusta, joka takaa Ukrainalle suvereniteetin korvaukseksi ydinaseista luopumisesta. Vastauksessaan Vladimir Putin korosti edellen sitä, miten välttämätöntä oli selvittää Krimin asukkaiden tahto, ja toivoi, että päätökset tehtäisiin vasta kun kansanäänestyksen tulokset olisivat selvillä.

Quote
Зашла речь и о положении крымр?ких татар. Путин обещал, что вр?е права крымр?ких татар будут вор?р?тановлены быр?тро и р?ффективно, а не так, как р?то делалор?ь на Украине. Приводил в пример р?чар?тливую жизнь татар в Татарр?тане. Джемилев заметил, что р?итуацир? в Крыму взрывоопар?нар? и в любой момент против крымр?ких татар могут быть ур?троены провокации. Путин в ответ на р?то р?казал: "Пур?ть только попробуют!". Он добавил, что уже отдал рар?порр?женир?, чтобы крымр?ким татарам не было нанер?ено никакого ущерба.

Puheeksi tuli Krimin tataarien tilanne. Putin lupasi, että kaikki Krimin tataarien oikeudet palautetaan heti ja tehokkaasti, aivan toisin kuin Ukrainan vallan alla. Hän vertasi Krimin tataarien tilannetta Tatarstanin tataarien onnelliseen oloon. Dzhemilev huomautti, että Krimin tilanne oli räjähdysarka ja että Krimin tataareihin voi koska tahansa kohdistua provokaatioita. Putin vastasi: "Yrittäköötpä vain!" Hän lisäsi antaneensa jo määräyksen olla vahingoittamatta Krimin tataareja mitenkään.

Quote
Таким образом, фактичер?ки Путин признал прир?утр?твие рор?р?ийр?ких войр?к в Крыму вне баз Черноморр?кого флота, пор?кольку кому же он еще может отдать рар?порр?женир?, как не р?воим подчиненным. К тому же Джемилев во времр? бер?еды неоднократно говорил о прир?утр?твии рор?р?ийр?ких войр?к в Крыму, а Путин его ни разу не опроверг и не поправил.

Tällä tavalla Putin käytännössä myönsi, että Krimillä oli venäläisiä joukkoja Mustanmeren laivaston tukikohtien ulkopuolella: kelle hän olisi sellaisia määräyksiä jaellut, ellei omille alaisilleen? Lisäksi Dzhemilev puhui keskustelun aikana useita kertoja venäläisistä joukoista Krimillä, eikä Putin kertaakaan kieltänyt eikä korjannut.


Quote
Завершилар?ь бер?еда предложением Путина не терр?ть контакты и обращатьр?р? к нему в любое времр?, ир?пользур? пор?редничер?тво Шаймиева.

Keskustelun lopuksi Putin tarjoutui säilyttämään keskusteluyhteyden ja sanoi, että hänen puoleensa oli mahdollista kääntyä koska vain, Shaimijev toimisi välittäjänä.

Quote
Что же р?то было? Мур?тафа Джемилев не был в Ѐ ор?р?ии р? 1986 года, не р?читар? транзитных ор?тановок в ар?ропорту. Он никогда не был партнером длр? рор?р?ийр?ких политиков. Он не занимает ответр?твенных пор?тов в украинр?ком правительр?тве, ор?тавар?р?ь рр?довым депутатом парламента. В нар?тор?щее времр? он не занимает никаких пор?тов даже в Меджлир?е - неформальном национальном парламенте крымр?ких татар. Почему админир?трацир? Путина инициировала его разговор р? президентом и на что они рар?р?читывают? Чего они хотр?т? Зачем выказывают вр?р?чер?кое рар?положение к нему, прекрар?но понимар?, что Мур?тафа Джемилев - р?то не тот человек, р? которым можно договоритьр?р? за р?чет интерер?ов крымр?ких татар или Украины?

Mistä oikein oli kysymys? Mustafa Dzhemilev ei ollut käynyt Venäjällä vuoden 1986 jälkeen, paitsi jatkolentoa odottamassa lentokentällä. Hän ei ollut koskaan ollut venäläisten poliitikkojen yhteistyökumppani. Hänellä ei ole luottamustehtäviä Ukrainan hallituksessa, hän on vain parlamentin rivikansanedustaja. Nykyään hänellä ei ole minkäänlaista asemaa edes Medzhlisissä, krimintataarien epävirallisessa kansallisessa parlamentissa. Miksi Putinin hallinto järjesti hänelle keskusteluyhteyden presidentin kanssa ja mitä se häneltä oikein odottaa saavansa? Mitä se haluaa? Miksi se suosii ja imartelee häntä, jos se ymmärtää oikein hyvin, että Mustafa Dzhemilev ei ole se henkilö, jonka kanssa Krimin tataarien tai Ukrainan intressejä koskevista asioista voi sopia?

Quote
Ведь р?то же надо было ур?троить ему в Мор?кве такую вр?тречу - на летном поле, от трапа р?амолета, минур? вр?е пограничные и таможенные формальнор?ти, в р?опровождении полицейр?кого р?р?корта р? мигалками! Ѐ?е в автозаке, в наручниках и в Лефортово, как бывало раньше, а р?о вр?ей предупредительнор?тью в отель "Radisson Украина". В ходе бер?еды р? Путиным Джемилев протокольно поблагодарил его за теплый прием, на что Путин ответил: "Ѐ?у а как же, иного и не должно быть".

Pitihän hänelle Moskovassa järjestää sellainen tapaaminen - lentokentältä, lentokoneen laskuportailta, kaikki raja- ja tullimuodollisuudet ohittaen, poliisisaattueessa pillit soiden! Ei vankiautossa, käsiraudoissa Lefortovon vankilaan, vaan kaikkea huomaavaisuutta noudattaen Radisson Ukraina -hotelliin. Putinin kanssa keskustellessaan Dzhemilev kiitti häntä protokollan mukaisesti lämpimästä vastaanotosta, mihin Putin: "No mitäs, muutahan ei olisi voinut odottaakaan!"

Quote
Сам Джемилев р?читает, что Путин хочет добитьр?р? нейтралитета крымр?ких татар в нынешней нер?покойной р?итуации. Очевидно, р?амые ор?трые р?обытир? еще впереди. Кремль р?р?но понимает, что крымр?кие татары - р?то единр?твеннар? реальнар? и хорошо организованнар? политичер?кар? р?ила в Крыму. Ее активное противодейр?твие рор?р?ийр?кой р?кр?панр?ии может нарушить вр?е планы Мор?квы. Видимо, пор?тому Кремль заинтерер?ован в контактах р? Мур?тафой Джемилевым. Можно р?делать и еще один вывод. Мор?ква опар?аетр?р? военного ответа в Крыму, даже ер?ли р?то будет гражданр?кий конфликт или партизанр?кар? война.

Dzhemilev itse katsoo, että Putin haluaa varmistaa Krimin tataarien puolueettomuuden nykyisessä rauhattomassa tilanteessa. Näköjään edessäpäin on vielä hyvin pahoja tapahtumia. Kreml ymmärtää selvästi, että Krimin tataarit ovat ainoa reaalinen ja hyvin organisoitunut poliittinen voima Krimillä. Jos se aktiivisesti vastustaa Venäjän laajenemista, Moskovan kaikki suunnitelmat voivat vielä mennä pahasti pieleen. Siksi Kreml näköjään on kiinnostunut kontakteista Mustafa Dzhemilevin kanssa. Lisäksi vielä yksi johtopäätös on mahdollinen. Moskova pelkää sotilaallista vastaiskua Krimillä, olipa sitten kyseessä konflikti siviilien kanssa tai sissisota.
Title: Re: Ukrainan tilanne ja muut Venäjän ja Itä-Euroopan asiat
Post by: Vongoethe on March 18, 2014, 15:46:10
"In Russia, the word for "conversation" is the same word as the word for "shut the f*** up!".

http://thedailyshow.cc.com/full-episodes/gytqg9/march-6--2014---kimberly-marten


Jon Stewart Nails Conservatives On Their Love Affair With Vladimir Putin (http://www.politicususa.com/2014/03/07/jon-stewart-nails-conservatives-love-affair-vladimir-putin.html)
 
Quote
By: Justin Baragona, Friday, March, 7th, 2014, 10:01 am

During the first segment of The Daily Show on Thursday night, Jon Stewart took Republicans and conservatives
to school by highlighting their apparent crush on Russia's President Vladimir Putin. In typical Stewart fashion,
he used their own words against them to point out how they are showing cognitive dissonance by praising Putin
for basically being a dictator and doing whatever he wants on the international stage, even though they've spent
years complaining about how President Obama is acting like a dictator king and is using authoritarian rule in America.

After beginning the show by giving a nice little breakdown of the current events in Ukraine and how Putin
has been dishonest about what Russia has done so far, Stewart moved onto how conservatives in the
American media have swallowed Putin's propaganda and fallen head over heels for him. He contrasted
Germany's Angela Merkel stating that Putin is delusional and living in his own reality with Republican
figures like Ralph Peters and Rudy Giuliani stating that Putin is a real leader and is far more effective
than Obama. Stewart showed a clip of Giuliani saying that Putin doesn't waste time when making a
decision and he makes others react to his actions, therefore showing he is a true leader. The Daily
Show host destroyed Giuliani's argument by stating that making a quick decision and watching
everybody react isn't a leader. Instead, that is what a toddler does.

Throughout the segment, Stewart showed various clips of conservatives like Bill O'Reilly, Sarah Palin,
Sean Hannity, Eric Bolling and Charles Payne all ripping the President for being weak while commending
Putin for being macho and a tough guy. They also seemed to use the same talking point of Obama
wearing 'mom jeans' while Putin is someone who is muscular, wrestles bears and tigers and
will kill you if he has the chance.

Stewart helpfully highlighted that the image of Putin as some Conan the Barbarian-type who rides
horses with his shirt off and hunts tigers is all propaganda aimed at creating the very image that
these conservative pundits are gladly propping up. Putin is an autocratic leader who will do anything
to stay in power and pines for the old Soviet bloc days. He utilizes state-run media to create the
narrative he wants his country's citizens to see and hear. He has completely dismissed the UN
and the Security Council months after lecturing the United States that we needed to do the same
with regards to Syria.

Stewart saved the best for last during the segment. After showing all of these conservatives calling
Obama weak and indecisive while fawning all over Putin and basically wishing he was their leader,
Stewart showed clips of many of those same people complaining that Obama acts like a dictator and
rules America with an iron fist. Apparently, in the conservative mind, Obama is 'a weak, mom-jeans
wearing DICTATOR KING!' As Stewart hilariously highlighted, either something happened to these
people as children to create this inherent cognitive dissonance, or they will just do whatever it takes
 to undermine this President at every turn.
Title: Re: Ukrainan tilanne ja muut Venäjän ja Itä-Euroopan asiat
Post by: Vongoethe on March 18, 2014, 15:59:46
London Evening Standard, 17.3.2014: Timothy Snyder: Freedom in Russian exists only in Ukraine (http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/timothy-snyder-freedom-in-russian-exists-only-in-ukraine-9196833.html)

Quote
Published: 17 March 2014. Updated: 17:42, 17 March 2014

In Ukraine, millions of Russian-speakers read a free press and learn from an uncensored internet

(http://www.standard.co.uk/incoming/article9192736.ece/alternates/w620/Ukraine%20business%20markets.jpg)
Ukrainians protest in Kiev

Last weekend Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the most famous of Russia's political prisoners, spoke to tens
of thousands of Ukrainians on the main square in Kiev, the Maidan. Khodorkovsky told them what
they already knew: that Ukrainian citiznes from all walks of life, of all ethnicities, had suffered for
and won their freedom in a revolution for dignity and decency.

What language did Khodorkovsky speak in Kiev? Russian, of course, his native language, and a
language most Ukrainians speak. Most Ukrainians are bilingual and many Ukrainians in Kiev speak
Russian rather than Ukrainian at home. Ukrainians are cosmopolitan in a way that most of us are not.
Unfortunately, we reward them for it by not noticing that they are bilingual, dividing them into groups
of Russian- and Ukrainian-speakers, drawing the conclusion that there are two nations instead of
one - and thereby preparing ourselves for Putin's war propaganda.

Putin claims that he is defending the rights of speakers of Russian in Ukraine. He has used this
argument to justify his invasion of Crimea and the electoral theatre of yesterday, a "referendum"
in which there was no way to vote against union with Russia.

Among the speakers of Russian in Crimea are the Crimean Tatars, whose historical memory is
dominated by their murderous deportation by Stalin in the Forties, and who boycotted the
"referendum". It makes no reference to their minority rights, nor to their assembly, the Mejlis,
which was permitted by Ukrainian law. Crimean Tatars are now fleeing the peninsula for mainland
Ukraine. Russian-speaking Ukrainian Jews have also made it clear to Putin that they do not want
Russian intervention.

If speakers of Russian were suffering discrimination, that would give rise to concern, though not
justify invasion. In fact, Russian is a completely normal language of interchange in Ukraine.
There, tens of millions of Russian-speakers read a free press, watch uncontrolled television and
learn from an uncensored internet, in either Ukrainian or in Russian, as they prefer.

In Russia, the major social media have been brought under state control, television has been almost
completely subdued and several of the remaining free-thinking blogs and internet news sites have
been shut down or pressured. This leaves Ukraine as an island of free speech for people who use
the Russian language.

There is a country where millions of Russian-speakers lack basic rights. That country is the Russian
Federation. There is a neighbouring country where tens of millions of Russian-speakers enjoy basic
rights - despite the disruptions of a revolution and Russian invasion. That country is Ukraine.
As the joke goes, Ukraine is a country where people speak Russian, while Russia is a country where
people stay quiet in Russian.

During his remarks, Khodorkovsky was interrupted by the masses on the Maidan. Ukrainians chanted
over and over: "Glory to Russia! Glory to Russia! Glory to Russia!" and "Thank you, thank you, thank you".
They pronounced these words of respect to their Russian guest in the Russian language. Such Ukrainians
represent Putin's real Ukrainian problem: free people who speak freely in Russian, and might set an
example one day for Russians themselves.

Timothy Snyder is visiting London as Roman Professor of History at the LSE.
He is the author of Bloodlands: Europe Between Hitler and Stalin
.


Related stories


-¢  Ukraine 'verging on state of war,' warns Moscow (http://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/ukraine-verging-on-state-of-war-warns-moscow-9182745.html)


-¢  West to target millions hoarded by Ukraine's ousted president (http://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/west-to-target-millions-hoarded-by-ukraines-ousted-president-9182219.html)


Muita Timothy Snyderin kirjoituksia:

http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2014/mar/01/ukraine-haze-propaganda/

http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2014/mar/07/crimea-putin-vs-reality/

http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2014/mar/20/fascism-russia-and-ukraine/
Title: Re: Ukrainan tilanne ja muut Venäjän ja Itä-Euroopan asiat
Post by: Vongoethe on March 18, 2014, 18:49:29
The Moscow Times: How the West Encouraged Putin's Aggression (http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/how-the-west-encouraged-putins-aggression/496379.html)

"By Alexander Golts
Mar. 18 2014 00:00
Last edited 21:53

(http://www.themoscowtimes.com/upload/iblock/7c3/5331-p-08-pu_reset20.jpg)

***

But the weakness that the U.S. and other developed democracies have shown in standing up to
Putin over the years has led in no small part to the rise of his aggressive policies.

Strategists and ideologues have been debating for 15 years whether or not the West could overlook
Putin's exotic views - namely, that Russia is engaged in a permanent struggle with the West and
that the West is responsible for all of Russia's problems.

***

In pursuing this policy of engagement the West hoped that, as that cooperation progressed, the
Russian leadership would gradually become more "civilized." This policy was obviously a failure.
Despite its involvement in these projects, the Kremlin did not become more civilized, but retained
its 19th-century mindset.

The ideologues - who were previously outnumbered by the strategists, but will likely grow from here -"
argued all along that long-term cooperation would not work without paying attention to the serious
values gap between Moscow and the West.

They contend that if one side believes in free and fair elections, the rule of law and political and
personal freedoms for its citizens, but the other side believes that all of these are just tools for
manipulating the population, then no long-term partnership is possible in any form.

If one side views the relationship as a constant struggle for superiority, it will use any ostensible
cooperation as an opportunity to weaken the enemy's military might and undermine the resolve
of its population.

Instead of trying to engage Russia, the West should have focused on explaining to the Kremlin that
civilized states should not violate international law. Unfortunately, the same Western states that so
loudly tout their supposed observance of the rule of law at times prefer circumventing those rules
for the sake of political expediency.

Recall how Washington struggled to make its case for the invasion of Iraq, or how the West granted
independence to Kosovo in violation of international law. As Moscow annexes Crimea, it happily reminds
the West of those precedents.

It is this behavior that reinforces Putin's conviction that the world is ruled by force, not by law.

Admittedly, this analysis lacks practical value when Putin has already crossed every imaginable "red line."
At this point, there is nothing left to do but focus on the future, be it in the short or long-term.
The only way the West can hope to reestablish normal relations with Russia is by itself adhering
to the lofty principles it proclaims.
"
Title: Re: Ukrainan tilanne ja muut Venäjän ja Itä-Euroopan asiat
Post by: Vongoethe on March 18, 2014, 19:50:19
Suomen sotilas, Jaakko Puuperä, 17.03.2014 - 14:00: Seuraava siirto (http://www.suomensotilas.fi/fi/seuraava-siirto)?

"***

Venäjän propaganda on sotavaihteella - piittaamatta konfrontaatiosta koko länsimaailman kanssa.
Venäjä ei odota sellaisia seuraamuksia, jotka oikeasti sattuisivat siihen - mahdolliset sanktiot
pyörretään kyllä nopeasti sen jälkeen, kun Venäjä on asettanut länsimaat tapahtuneiden tosiasioiden
eteen. Näin on käynyt joka kerran ennenkin.

Invaasio näyttää siis - jos kohta ei varmalta - niin erittäin todennäköiseltä.

Venäjän joukot on ryhmitetty Belgorodiin Harkovan valtausta varten, Rostovin lääniin kaakon
valtausta varten sekä tuhansia miehiä Transdnistriaan, Ukrainan länsipuolelle, Dnestrin itärannalle,
mahdollisia Odessan lääniin suuntautuvia operaatioita varten tai vaihtoehtoisesti operoimaan Moldovassa,
jonka olemassaolo voi myös olla uhattuna. Jos Kiova on Venäjän päätähtäimessä, pääjoukot hyökännevät
kuitenkin Brjanskin läänistä idässä suoraan Kiovaan. Tätä varten on jo haettu Valko-Venäjältä
lupa sen alueen käyttöön hyökkäyksen ilmatuen varmistamiseksi.

Kiovan onnistunut nopea valtaus veisi Ukrainalta kansainvälisen tuen. Toisaalta jos ukrainalaiset
onnistuisivat mobilisoimaan maanpuolustuksensa niin, että se varmistaisi riittävän hidastamisen,
läntinen maailma saattaisi ainakin herätä unestaan.

Usein kaikkea, mihin on valmistauduttu, ei panna toimeen, varsinkaan jos pelkkä uhkailu riittää.
Nykytilanteeseen on tultu siksi, että Lännen uhat eivät enää ole uskottavia, koska niiden
toimeenpanoon ei Moskovassa uskota.

***

Putin epäilemättä haluaisi nähdä uuden Jaltan konferenssin, jossa hän saa läntisiltä suurvalloilta takeet
mahdollisimman suurelle vaikutuspiirille Itä-Euroopassa, ja jossa Amerikan ja Euroopan heikot johtajat
nähtäisiin alistumassa Venäjän jokaiseen vaatimukseen. Jotain tällaista Putinilla lähipiireineen on luultavasti
suunnitelmissa ehtona sille, että Ukrainan täysi invaasio vältettäisiin - mutta tulokset olisivat tietysti
ukrainalaisten kannalta lopulta aivan samat. Aivan kuten kävi aikoinaan vain vuotta Münchenin konferenssin
jälkeen tshekeille. Siis 75 vuotta sitten
"
Title: Re: Ukrainan tilanne ja muut Venäjän ja Itä-Euroopan asiat
Post by: Vongoethe on March 18, 2014, 22:11:09
New York Times, Olesya Vartanyan and Ellen Barry, 18.3. 2014: If History Is a Guide, Crimea's Enthusiasm Might Not Last (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/19/world/europe/south-ossetia-crimea.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&_r=0)

Kadri Liik, 18.4.2014: Putin's New World Order (http://ecfr.eu/content/entry/commentary_putins_new_world_order)

Martin Wolf, Financial Times, 18.4.2014: Prise Ukraine from Putin's claws (http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/123f400e-ab7f-11e3-aad9-00144feab7de.html#axzz2wLi4DuzI)
Title: Re: Ukrainan tilanne ja muut Venäjän ja Itä-Euroopan asiat
Post by: Vongoethe on March 19, 2014, 01:37:14
Quote

Russia's Putin Signs Treaty to Annex Crimea

President Says Ukraine Region Is Vital to Russia's Security

By Gregory L. White

Updated March 18, 2014 4:10 p.m. ET

MOSCOW - President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday moved to annex the breakaway Ukrainian region
of Crimea but sought to reassure Ukraine by saying Russia has no further designs on its neighbor's territory.

In an otherwise defiant speech to parliament and top officials, Mr. Putin dismissed sanctions and threats
of other consequences from Europe and the U.S., saying the West had "crossed the line" by fomenting
what he called a putsch in Kiev earlier this year.

Mr. Putin signed treaties formally annexing Crimea and the port city of Sevastopol, which has long
had a separate administrative status.

Even if he stops there, Mr. Putin's annexation of the Black Sea peninsula would be the first such
move in Europe since the end of World War II, upending long-held assumptions about security
on the continent and potentially condemning Russia to a period of prolonged isolation.

Mr. Putin's public statements during the crisis haven't always aligned with Russian actions.
Only two weeks ago, he said Moscow had no plans to annex Crimea
.

In Crimea, tensions between Russian troops, backed by pro-Russian locals, and Ukrainian
soldiers based in the region who have refused demands to surrender turned deadly.

One Ukrainian officer was killed in a shootout as his office in the capital of Simferopol was stormed by
men wearing Russian uniforms stripped of identifying insignia, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry in Kiev said.

The country's acting president, Oleksandr Turchynov, said he'd authorized Ukrainian forces based in
the region to use their weapons if needed for self-defense.

Western leaders immediately denounced the annexation and threatened new sanctions. U.S. President
Barack Obama called for a meeting next week of the leaders of the Group of Seven leading industrial
nations to discuss the crisis, pointedly excluding Russia from what had become the G-8.

The White House also signaled that it was preparing more sanctions against Russia, though it didn't
provide specifics. "The costs have been real and they will increase," Jay Carney, the chief White House
spokesman, said.

U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron said Mr. Putin had a choice: "take the path of de-escalation
or face increasing isolation and tighter sanctions."

Moscow showed no sign of backing down. Legislators were expected to complete the process of
annexation this week. The process has moved swiftly since voters in Crimea on Sunday overwhelmingly
passed a referendum to secede from Ukraine and join Russia.

Mr. Putin reached back centuries into czarist history in his speech and relied heavily on widely felt
nostalgia for the superpower status of the Soviet Union. He said Russia will stand up for the millions
of ethnic Russians and Russian-speakers in what he called "historic Russian lands" now outside its borders.

"In the hearts and consciousness of people, Crimea always was and will be an inalienable part of Russia,
" he said, arguing that the 1954 Soviet decision to assign the region to Ukraine was a "blatant historical
injustice" that violated laws then in effect.

"Crimea is our common property and a very important factor in the stability of the region," he said.
"This strategic territory should be under a strong, sovereign state and that in fact can only be Russia."
Leaving Crimea in Ukrainian hands, he warned, could lead Sevastopol, home to Russia's Black Sea Fleet,
to become a harbor for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Mr. Putin was interrupted repeatedly by applause and some wiped tears from their eyes. Dignitaries
chanted "Glory to Putin" during the ovations.

He signaled that Moscow isn't planning to send its troops-"which occupied Crimea over the last
two weeks - further into Ukraine. But he reiterated his harsh denunciations of the Western-backed
government in Kiev as illegitimate and dominated by "neo-Nazis and anti-Semites."

Appealing to the people of Ukraine, Mr. Putin said, "don't believe those who are using Russia to
scare you, who say that other regions will follow Crimea. We don't want a partition of Ukraine.
We don't need this."

"Millions of Russian people, Russian-speakers, now live and will continue to live in Ukraine, and
Russia will always defend their interests through political, diplomatic and legal means," he said.

Ukraine's foreign ministry didn't appear persuaded by Putin's signal that Moscow wasn't planning
to send troops, and said it wouldn't recognize the annexation.

"The signing of the so-called agreement on the inclusion of Crimea in Russia and the president's
speech has nothing to do either with the law, or with democracy or common sense," a spokesman said.
"Putin's speech demonstrated how dangerous Russia is for the civilized world and global security."

Elsewhere in the speech, Mr. Putin seemed to cast doubt on Ukraine's historical claims to the eastern
and southern regions where ethnic Russians make up a large share of the population. Mr. Putin said
those territories -which he called "the historical south of Russia" - were given to Ukraine by Bolshevik
leaders in the early 1900s without the approval of residents
.

(http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-BY722_crimea_G_20140318101300.jpg)
People listen to a speech given by Russian President Vladimir Putin broadcast on a giant screen in
Sevastopol on Tuesday. Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

 
Western capitals called the annexation a violation of international law. But divisions surfaced over
how harshly to respond, with some trading partners wary of sweeping measures

U.K. Foreign Minister William Hague called on the Euroepan Union to suspend military exports to
Russia - a measure that would compel France to freeze a €1.4 billion ($2 billion) contract for two
warships. France shot back with a demand that U.K. banks seize or freeze assets of Russian oligarchs,
which would disrupt a lucrative revenue stream for the London financial center.

Japan said Tuesday it will suspend talks with Russia on relaxing visa and investment rules, space
cooperation and defense accords.

The response from Germany, Europe's biggest importer of Russian gas, was muted. In a phone
call with Mr. Obama, Chancellor Angela Merkel condemned Crimea's secession and annexation
by Russia as "unacceptable blows against the territorial integrity of Ukraine."

She agreed with Mr. Obama on the need for tougher sanctions, but both leaders stressed their
willingness to seek a political solution to the crisis through dialogue, the chancellery said.

U.S. Vice President Joe Biden, traveling in Poland and the Baltic states, assured alarmed leaders
there that NATO's security guarantees for them are ironclad.

Mr. Putin scoffed at Western criticisms, accusing the U.S. and its allies of ignoring international law
when it suited their interests and "cynically" relying on "the law of the strong."

"We've been deceived time after time" by Western assurances that Russia's interests would be taken
into account, he said. "We have every reason to believe that the well-known policy of containing Russia
from the 18th, 19th and 20th centuries is being continued today."

After years of weakness in the 1990s, Mr. Putin said Russia now is able to stand up for itself. "If you
compress a spring to the limit, it will ultimately rebound strongly," he said.

He dismissed the Western sanctions. "We of course will confront external pressure, but we have to
decide for ourselves whether we are ready to consistently defend our national interests or endlessly
betray them, retreating who knows where," he said.

Russia's currency and stock markets have dropped since the crisis began and capital flight has accelerated,
leading many economists to warn that the economy faces stagnation this year. But investors welcomed
the tone of Mr. Putin's speech, interpreting it as more conciliatory than expected.

European shares, which had fallen as investors awaited the speech, rallied sharply, while the Russian
ruble bounced back from steep losses earlier in the day. U.S. markets were also in positive territory.

Mr. Putin noted that polls show over 90% of Russians back the annexation of Crimea. The Kremlin
organized a celebratory rally on Red Square on Tuesday afternoon, where Putin also spoke.

The Crimean drive has helped fuel a wave of patriotic fervor in Russia that some analysts say could
help the Kremlin weather the coming economic slowdown.

A poll released this week found that about 48% of Russians said they wanted to live in a "great power
that other countries respect and fear," about the same as said they wanted to live in a country with
a high standard of living that wasn't one of the world's most powerful.

Mr. Putin also warned that any efforts by outsiders to undermine Russia's resolve through what he
called "a fifth column or various national traitors" would provoke a firm response, fueling fears that
the hardening of foreign policy is bringing a crackdown on opponents at home. In recent weeks,
the Kremlin has tightened pressure on independent media and political opponents.

Tommy Stubbington
and Jared A. Favole
contributed to this article.

Write to  Gregory L. White at greg.white@wsj.com


http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304747404579446920731715270?mod=WSJEurope_hpp_LEFTTopStories&mg=reno64-wsj


Title: Re: Ukrainan tilanne ja muut Venäjän ja Itä-Euroopan asiat
Post by: metrics on March 19, 2014, 08:39:40
Anschlusszeit wiedermal.

Ja nythän Putilla "ei ole tarkoitusta puuttua" Itä-Ukrainaan.
Title: Re: Ukrainan tilanne ja muut Venäjän ja Itä-Euroopan asiat
Post by: Vongoethe on March 19, 2014, 12:20:43
Anschlusszeit wiedermal.

Ja nythän Putilla "ei ole tarkoitusta puuttua" Itä-Ukrainaan.

"We'll always have Anschluss..."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pa-dGYjSq5k
Title: Re: Ukrainan tilanne ja muut Venäjän ja Itä-Euroopan asiat
Post by: Vongoethe on March 19, 2014, 15:27:47
Verkkouutiset, 19.3.2014: Venäläisdiplomaatti: Venäjä saa taas Suomen, Alaskan, Baltian, Puolan (http://www.verkkouutiset.fi/ulkomaat/kokorev%20facebook%20suomi%20venaja-17646)

Quote
Ulkomaat 

Venäläisdiplomaatti: Venäjä saa taas Suomen, Alaskan, Baltian, Puolan

Juha-Pekka Tikka
32 minuuttia sitten  (päivitetty 14 minuuttia sitten) 

Euroopan neuvostossa Venäjää edustava Roman Kokorev kirjoitti Facebookiin maansa rajamaiden palauttamisesta.

(http://i.obozrevatel.ua/8/1579356/inner/857029.jpg)

Venäläisdiplomaatin Facebook-kirjoituksia koskevan Obozrevatelin jutun (http://obozrevatel.com/politics/15083-predstavitel-rf-v-evroparlamente-rossiya-namerena-prisoedinit-alyasku-stranyi-baltii-finlyandiyu-i-polshu.htm) on twiitannut muun muassa Ukrainan ulkoministeriö.

Roman Kokorev totesi kirjoituksissaan, että Venäjä tulee palauttamaan Moldovan, Ukrainan,
Neuvostoliiton alueet, Alaskan, Baltian, Puolan ja Suomen.

Kuvakaappaukset Roman Kokorevin Facebook-keskusteluista löytyvät tästä Faktyn jutusta (http://fakty.ictv.ua/ua/index/read-news/id/1508533). Kokorev on entinen
Venäjän presidentin hallinnon neuvonantaja ja kansainvälisen oikeuden professori.
Title: Re: Ukrainan tilanne ja muut Venäjän ja Itä-Euroopan asiat
Post by: Vongoethe on March 19, 2014, 15:53:45
Marine Le Pen on tunnustanut Krimin kansanäänestyksen tulokset.

Марин Ле Пен признала итоги референдума в Крыму (http://www.vz.ru/news/2014/3/17/677511.html)

Marine Le Pen has recognized the results of the referendum in the Crimea (http://cyplive.com/eng/news/marin-le-pen-priznala-itogi-referenduma-v-krymu.html)
Title: Re: Ukrainan tilanne ja muut Venäjän ja Itä-Euroopan asiat
Post by: Kourumies on March 19, 2014, 16:49:41
Ja aina vaan hauskemmaksi menee. Tämä on vuoden vanha juttu, mutta levittivät Facessa ja toivoivat suomennosta.

http://www.pravda.ru/world/europe/european/21-03-2013/1149287-finn-0/

Quote
На фоне разворачивающегося в Европе финансового кризиса северная соседка России пытается найти свой путь спасения от экономического коллапса. И найденный вариант спасения может удивить многих. Так, в последнее время в Финляндии становится все более популярной идея тесной интеграции с Российской Федерацией — вплоть до присоединения к ней.

"Eurooppaa koettelevan finanssikriisin pahetessa Venäjän pohjoinen naapuri koettaa löytää pakotien taloudellisesta romahduksesta. Ja löydetty pelastusmahdollisuus voi hämmästyttää monia. Kyllä, viime aikoina Suomessa nauttii yhä suurempaa suosiota ajatus tiukasta integroitumisesta, jopa liittymisestä, Venäjän federaatioon."

Quote
"Могла бы Финляндия стать российским Гонконгом?" Так называется статья в авторитетном журнале Suomen Kuvalehti, написанная влиятельным финским общественным деятелем, бизнесменом и юристом Ханну Крогерусом. Сам он отвечает на этот вопрос положительно: "Это то, чего требует нынешняя экономическая ситуация по всему миру — от Азии до Америки. Финляндии следует воспользоваться шансом и получить такой же международный статус по отношению к России, какой имеет Гонконг по отношению к материковому Китаю".

"Voisiko Suomesta tulla Venäjän Hong Kong? Näin on otsikoitu artikkeli arvostetussa Suomen Kuvalehdessä. Artikkelin on kirjoittanut vaikutusvaltainen suomalainen yhteiskunnallinen toimija, liikemies ja juristi Hannu Krogerus. Hän itse vastaa kysymykseen myönteisesti: 'Sitä nykyinen taloustilanne vaatii koko maailmassa - Aasiasta Amerikkaan. Suomen pitää käyttää tilaisuutta hyväkseen ja hankkia samanlainen kansainvälinen status suhteessa Venäjään kuin Hong Kongilla on suhteessa emämaa-Kiinaan."

Quote
По его мнению, в нынешних сложных экономических условиях национальная трагедия заключается в том, что современные молодые, талантливые, но неопытные политические деятели, представляющие интересы узкой прослойки элиты, практически хотят изолировать Финляндию от России.

"Hänen mielestään nykyoloissa kansallinen tragedia on, että nykyaikaiset nuoret, lahjakkaat mutta kokemattomat poliittiset toimijat, jotka edustavat kapean eliittikerroksen etuja, haluavat käytännössä eristää Suomen Venäjästä."

Quote
Интересно, что в своем мнении относительно совместного финско-русского будущего Ханну Крогерус не одинок. Недавно депутат местного парламента от партии "Истинные финны" Юхо Эерола предложил заключить между Финляндией и Россией стратегический военный союз. По его мнению, это единственный надежный способ гарантировать безопасность и благосостояние финнов. Его коллега по партии Хеммо Коскиниеми пошел еще дальше и потребовал, чтобы Финляндия обратно вошла в состав российского государства. "Россия для нас самый надежный партнер, которому мы доверяем", - заявил депутат.

"On mielenkiintoista, että Hannu Krogerus ei ole yksin mielipiteissään Venäjän ja Suomen yhteisestä tulevaisuudesta. Hiljattain paikallisen parlamentin edustaja Perussuomalaisten puolueesta, Juho Eerola, ehdotti Suomen ja Venäjän välille strategista poliittista liittoa. Hänen mielestään tämä on ainoa luotettava tapa taata suomalaisten turvallisuus ja hyvinvointi. Hänen puoluetoverinsa Hemmo Koskiniemi halusi mennä vielä pitemmälle ja vaati Suomea palaamaan takaisin osaksi Venäjän valtiota. 'Venäjä on meille luotettava partneri. johon luotamme' [venäjäksi tämä ei ole ihan näin tautofonisesti sanottu, KM], julisti edustaja."

Quote
До революции 1917 года Финляндия, как известно, была частью Российской империи, хотя и с весьма большой долей независимости. И у нее не просто была автономия — на ее территории действовали шведские законы, имела хождение собственная валюта, работала своя таможня. Так что опыт есть.

"Vuoden 1917 vallankumoukseen asti Suomi oli tunnetusti osa Venäjän imperiumia, vaikka sillä olikin laaja itsehallinto. Sillä ei ollut vain autonomiaa, vaan sen alueella olivat voimassa ruotsalaiset lait, käytössä oli oma valuutta ja toiminnassa oma tulli. Kokemusta siis on."

Quote
По словам известного финского правозащитника, доктора общественно-политических наук Йохана Бекмана, подобный пророссийский поворот во взглядах некоторых финских политиков и общественных деятелей произошел в течение минувшего года. И причиной тому стал перманентный европейский и мировой финансовый кризис. "Появилось устойчивое мнение, что у Евросоюза нет будущего, как и у НАТО. Так что распад этих структур выглядит все более вероятным", - считает правозащитник.

"Kuuluisan suomalaisen ihmisoikeusaktivistin, yhteiskuntatieteiden tohtori Johan Bäckmanin mielestä tällainen venäläismielinen käännös eräiden suomalaisten poliitikkojen ja yhteiskunnallisten toimijoiden näkemyksissä on tapahtunut viime vuoden kuluessa. Ja syy siihen on pysyvä eurooppalainen ja maailmanlaajuinen finanssikriisi. 'On kehkeytynyt pysyvä mielipide, että EU:lla ei ole tulevaisuutta, eikä Natollakaan. Näiden rakenteiden romahdus näyttää yhä todellisemmalta', - katsoo ihmisoikeusaktivisti."


Quote
Интересна в этом смысле позиция партии "Истинные финны". Некоторое время назад они выступали против "засилья" русских в Финляндии, которые активно скупают недвижимость в этой стране. Впрочем, по мнению Йохана Бекмана, та русофобская кампания была намеренно инспирирована в финских СМИ. Ее движущим мотивом стал тезис о том, что земельные участки покупают якобы российские спецслужбы для дальнейшего шпионажа. И участвовали в ней единичные представители самых разных партий. Сегодня, как отмечает правозащитник, накал русофобской пропаганды в финских СМИ заметно поутих.

"Tässä mielessä Perussuomalaisten positio on kiinnostava. Jokin aika sitten Perussuomalaiset vastustivat venäläisten 'ylivaltaa' Suomessa, venäläisten, jotka aktiivisesti ostavat kiinteistöjä Suomesta. Muuten, Johan Bäckmanin mielestä tämä russofobinen kampanja oli suomalaisten tiedotusvälineiden tahallisesti lietsoma. Sen perusmotiivi oli ajatus, että tontteja ostelevat muka venäläiset tiedustelupalvelut vastaista vakoilua varten. Siihen osallistuivat myös mitä erilaisimpien puolueiden yksittäiset toimijat. Tämään, kuten ihmisoikeusaktivisti huomauttaa, russofobisen propagandan into on suomalaisissa tiedotusvälineissä huomattavasti hiljentynyt."

Quote
Случайно или нет, но это совпало и с уходом из жизни такого маститого борца с Россией, как Макс Якобсон, который скончался 9 марта в возрасте 89 лет. Йохан Бекман называет его "серым кардиналом" русофобской пропаганды, которую он вел в интересах США и Великобритании. В частности, Макс Якобсон был ярым сторонником вступления Финляндии в НАТО. Мотивировал он это, естественно, "российской угрозой", заявляя в своих статьях, что в отношениях с Россией всегда нужно готовиться к худшему. В противовес этому финские националисты, чьи интересы представляет партия "Истинные финны", уверены, что только вхождение Финляндии в состав России на правах автономии защитит страну от притязаний ЕС, НАТО и конкретно шведов.

"Sattumaa tai ei, mutta tämä tapahtui samaan aikaan sellaisen arvossapidetyn Venäjän vihollisen kun Max Jakobsonin poismenon kanssa. Hän menehtyi 9. maaliskuuta 89 vuoden iässä. Johan Bäckman kutsuu häntä russofobisen propagandan harmaaksi eminenssiksi, propagandan, jota hän harjoitti USA:n ja Ison-Britannian intressien edistämiseksi. Erityisesti Max Jakobson oli Suomen Natoon liittymisen kiihkeä kannattaja. Hän perusteli sitä 'Venäjän uhalla' julistaen artikkeleissaan, että suhteissa Venäjään on aina syytä valmistautua pahimpaan. Vastapainona tälle suomalaiset nationalistit, joiden asiaa ajavat Perussuomalaiset, ovat vakuuttuneita siitä, että vain Suomen liittyminen Venäjään autonomiaoikeuksin suojelee maata EU:n, Naton ja konkreettisesti ruotsalaisten pyrkimyksiltä."

Quote
"Истинные финны" - единственная партия в местном парламенте, выступающая за присоединение к России. Их мнение в какой-то степени разделяют и экономисты. Так, известный финский экономист Яакко Киандер недавно также заявил порталу Verkkouutiset, что судьба Финляндии — присоединение к экономическому региону Санкт-Петербурга. "Я думаю, что финская экономика все больше и больше будет интегрироваться с экономикой региона Санкт-Петербурга, что обеспечит для нашей страны приток российского капитала", — отмечает экономист. Также он напоминает, что в настоящее время Россия является крупнейшим торговым партнером Финляндии. "Нравится нам или нет, но мы очень тесно связаны с развитием российской экономики", - подчеркивает Яакко Киандер.

"Perussuomalaiset ovat paikallisen parlamentin ainoa puolue, joka kannattaa Venäjään liittymistä. Heidän käsityksensä kannalla ovat jossain määrin myös taloustieteilijät. Tunnettu suomalainen taloustieteilijä Jaakko Kiander julisti hiljattain Verkkouutiset-portaalissa, että Suomen kohtalo on liittyä Pietarin talousalueeseen. 'Luulen, että Suomen talous integroituu vähitellen yhä enemmän Pietarin alueen talouteen, mikä puolestaan takaa venäläisen pääoman jatkuvan virran Suomeen', huomauttaa taloustieteilijä. Hän muistuttaa myös, että Venäjä on tällä hetkellä Suomen tärkein kauppakumppani. 'Pidämme siitä tai ei, mutta meillä on hyvin tiukat siteet Venäjän talouden kehitykseen', korostaa Jaakko Kiander."


Quote
Премьер-министр Финляндии также на днях заявил, что положительно относится к идее интеграции Финляндии и России. А доктор общественно-политических наук Йохан Бекман считает, что примером такой интеграции вполне могло бы стать присоединение Финляндии к Таможенному союзу.

"Suomen pääministeri julisti myös hiljattain suhtautuvansa myönteisesti Suomen ja Venäjän integraatioon. Ja yhteiskuntatieteiden tohtori Johan Bäckman on sitä mieltä, että esimerkkinä sellaisesta integraatiosta voisi olla Suomen liittyminen Tulliliittoon." (kyseessä lienee jokin entisten sosialistimaiden tulliliitto)
Title: Re: Ukrainan tilanne ja muut Venäjän ja Itä-Euroopan asiat
Post by: Kourumies on March 19, 2014, 17:09:45
Mitä tästä opimme? Ainakin sen, ettei kannata gännishä ja läbällä mennä trollaamaan Venäjän osavaltioksi liittymisellä. Nykyään ne osaavat näet lukea sen lehdistä ja tulkita sen niin, että persut haluavat Venäjän armeijan veljellistä apua. Lyön aika monta hryvniaa vetoa, että tuota veljellistä avunpyyntöä vielä hyödynnetään aika monta kertaa Venäjän sisäisessä propagandassa.

Voin taas kerran sanoa olleeni täysin oikeassa persujen ja maahanmuuttokriitikoiden Venäjä-suhteesta.
Title: Re: Ukrainan tilanne ja muut Venäjän ja Itä-Euroopan asiat
Post by: Kourumies on March 19, 2014, 17:34:46
Se on muuten kumman hiljaiseksi mennyt tuo meidän päivystävä mamukriitikko. Luulisi olevan iloinen, kun hänen rakkaan Ihantolansa joukot jo ryhmittyvät itärajalle. Vai kuulemmeko nyt ininää siitä että Putinista viis, mutta ne muslimilaumat sikiävät ja ovat enemmistönä vuonna kaksituhattasatajatuhat?
Title: Re: Ukrainan tilanne ja muut Venäjän ja Itä-Euroopan asiat
Post by: metrics on March 19, 2014, 18:33:17
Minuako tarkoitat? Mielestäni olen kyllä kirjoittanut joka päivä jotain. En ole ylipäätään kirjoitellut islamista mitään, joten saatat tarkoittaa jotakuta muutakin.

No mutta Putinista kuus, Kristikunnan Leijona, joka pelastaa meidät homosaatiolta, islamisaatiolta ja mutavyöryltä, odotan kuin Messiasta saapuvaksi.

Libera eas de ore leonis! (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0gGMZsPpGug)
Title: Re: Ukrainan tilanne ja muut Venäjän ja Itä-Euroopan asiat
Post by: Vongoethe on March 19, 2014, 19:34:03
Minuako tarkoitat? Mielestäni olen kyllä kirjoittanut joka päivä jotain. En ole ylipäätään kirjoitellut islamista mitään, joten saatat tarkoittaa jotakuta muutakin.

No mutta Putinista kuus, Kristikunnan Leijona, joka pelastaa meidät homosaatiolta, islamisaatiolta ja mutavyöryltä, odotan kuin Messiasta saapuvaksi.

Libera eas de ore leonis! (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0gGMZsPpGug)

Hankalaahan se olisi pelotella lännen uppoamisella jos kuuluisimmekin itään. Pitäisi alkaa propagoida
idän uppoamisella, eikä vanha koira uusia temppuja taida niin äkkiä oppiakaan.
Venäläiset osaavat sellaiset vanhastaan, eivät tarvitse tsuhnia niihin hommiin.
Title: Re: Ukrainan tilanne ja muut Venäjän ja Itä-Euroopan asiat
Post by: metrics on March 23, 2014, 18:24:30
Crime-a-river -kokoelma.

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2014/03/the-week-in-pictures-crimea-river-edition.php
Title: Re: Ukrainan tilanne ja muut Venäjän ja Itä-Euroopan asiat
Post by: Vongoethe on March 24, 2014, 10:27:56
Timothy Snyder, tällä kertaa New Republic -lehdessä 17.3.2014:

Far-Right Forces are Influencing Russia's Actions in Crimea (http://www.newrepublic.com/article/117048/far-right-forces-are-influencing-russias-actions-crimea)

Quote from: Timothy Snyder

Russian authorities claim that their invasion of Ukraine is justified by the fascist threat posed by the new authorities in Kiev.
The Ukrainian government is led by a conservative technocrat called Arseniy Yatseniuk. The Ukrainian revolution involved
people from all walks of life and all political orientations. The far right was overrepresented in the people who fought the
riot police in its final weeks, as the Ukrainian regime resorted to kidnapping, torture, and mass shooting. Members of the
right-wing party Svoboda hold a handful of portfolios in the new government, although far more are held by conventional
political parties and people of different views. This spring, elections should demonstrate the limited popularity of the far right
within Ukrainian society. In opinion polls held in anticipation of the presidential elections scheduled for May 25, the leaders of
the Ukrainian far right receive the support of 2 percent to 3 percent of Ukrainian citizens. None of the leading candidates
remotely resembles a nationalist. If elections are held, the winner will likely be a chocolate magnate or a former heavyweight
boxer, neither of them remotely nationalist.

Of course, the point of Russian intervention is to make sure that these elections never happen. It is deeply strange for
an openly right-wing authoritarian regime, such as that of Vladimir Putin, to treat the presence of right-wing politicians
in a neighboring democracy as the reason for a military invasion. Putin's own social policy is, if anything, to the right
of the Ukrainians whom he criticizes. The Russian attempt to control Ukraine is based upon Eurasian ideology, which
explicitly rejects liberal democracy. The founder of the Eurasian movement is an actual fascist, Alexander Dugin,
who calls for a revolution of values from Portugal to Siberia. The man responsible for Ukraine policy, Sergei Glayzev,
used to run a far-right nationalist party that was banned for its racist electoral campaign. Putin has placed himself
at the head of a worldwide campaign against homosexuality. This is politically useful, since opposition to Russia is
now blamed on an international gay lobby which cannot by its nature understand the inherent spirituality of traditional
Russian civilization.

The Russian invasion and occupation of Crimea was carried out in a spirit that recalled to many, including some Russian
observers, that of the late 1930s. The argument used was that the Russian state had the right to protect fellow Russians.
Making the case in this way places ethnicity, as imagined and proposed by Moscow, more important that international
borders and international law. Indeed, Russian authorities have been quite explicit that this is their doctrine: Ukraine is
no longer a state because they say so, and all that matters in the world of international relations is ethnicity and history
as seen from Moscow. The only “right” that individuals have in this logic is to be defined as members of a Volk by the
Kremlin, and then to be invaded or not as appropriate. That Russians in Ukraine in fact enjoy far broader freedoms than
Russians in Russia is irrelevant, since in this scheme people are not individuals but simply numerical arguments for
territorial expansion. This sort of dismissal of states and laws in favor of ethnicity and invasion is not evidence that
today’s Russia opposes fascism.

Crimea under Ukrainian rule has been an autonomous province inhabited, alongside Russians and Ukrainians, by the
Crimean Tatar minority. The Crimean Tatars were deported by the Soviet NKVD as a totality, every man, woman,
and child, in May 1944. Those who live in Crimea are surviving deportees and their children and grandchildren,
people who made their way back from murderous exile in Soviet Uzbekistan and reestablished themselves in what
became independent Ukraine. Their return to their homeland was one of the precious cases of multicultural integration
in post-Soviet Europe. As a result, the Crimean Tatars were quite pro-Ukrainian, in the sense of preferring Ukrainian
law to any other alternative. The Russian invasion of their homeland immediately introduced a new sense of threat,
recalling for many Tatars the experience of ethnic cleansing. Suddenly their houses were marked. The mutilated body
of a Crimean Tatar man was discovered a few days ago. Crimean Tatar women and children were already being sent to
the Ukrainian mainland before the “referendum.” What will follow now will likely be worse.

What happened on Sunday in Crimea was an electoral farce. Referenda cannot be held under military occupation.
Referenda cannot have two options that have essentially the same meaning. Referenda cannot be held when all of
the propaganda is generated by the state. Referenda cannot be held when the local television stations are closed and
journalists are beaten and intimidated. Even in these conditions, the claim that 75 percent of the population took part
and more than 96 percent voted for annexation to Russia is untenable. We know from years of surveys that a majority
of Crimeans did not favor incorporation by Russia. One large survey showed 33 percent support for this idea in 2011,
down to 23 percent in 2013. The Crimean Tatars boycotted the "referendum," as did many Ukrainians, since it was
declared illegal and unconstitutional by the Ukrainian government. The recorded electoral frequency in the city of
Sevastopol was 123 percent.


Yet there were some people on hand to praise the "referendum." Moscow sent an invitation to parties of
the European far right, and found politicians willing to serve as "observers." Enrique Ravello has belonged to
the neo-Nazi CEDADE and now belongs to the extreme-right Plataforma per Catalunya. Luc Michel used to belong
to the neo-Nazi Fédération d’action nationaliste et européenne and now supports a blend of fascism and Bolshevism
that is also popular among Russia's Eurasianists. Béla Kovács is a member of the Hungarian extreme-right party
Jobbik and the treasurer of the Alliance of European National Movements. That Alliance characterizes Russian
intervention in Ukraine as a response to the global neoconservative conspiracy, portrayed as the latest attempt
at Jewish world domination.


While invading and occupying Crimea, Russia has, according to eyewitness accounts, sent some of its own citizens to
create unrest in east Ukrainian cities such as Kharkiv and Donetsk. In both places, in what was seemed like a planned
scenario, someone took down the Ukrainian flag from a public building and replaced it with a Russian one. In Kharkiv
the person who did this was a Russian citizen who allows himself to be photographed in Nazi uniforms. Perhaps this is
simply a personal fashion choice. In Donetsk the flag-raiser was Pavel Gubarov, a Russian nationalist (and Ukrainian citizen)
who declared himself to be the people’s governor. After he was arrested by Ukrainian authorities, he was presented as a
hero and a martyr on Russian television. In Donetsk Gubarov was known as a neo-Nazi and as a member of the fascist
organization Russian National Unity.

If there is still anyone on the Left who takes Putin seriously when he portrays the Russian occupation of Ukraine as
anti-fascist, now might be the moment to reconsider
.

Timothy Snyder is Housum Professor of History at Yale University and the author of Bloodlands: Europe Between Hitler and Stalin.
Title: Re: Ukrainan tilanne ja muut Venäjän ja Itä-Euroopan asiat
Post by: Kourumies on September 22, 2014, 21:58:32
Putinin menneisyys 90-luvun alussa huijarina ja ketkuna:

В Петербурге очередной скандал: депутатская комиссия во главе с Мариной Салье потребовала отстранить от должности председателя комитета по внешним сношениям мэрии Владимира Путина.

Pietarissa taas yksi skandaali. Marina Saljen johtama valtuutettujen (tai ehkä kansanedustajien?) komissio vaati Vladimir Putinin erottamista kaupunginjohtajan viraston ulkosuhteiden komitean puheenjohtajuudesta.

Полковник КГБ в прошлом, не имея полномочий от правительства, он выдавал лицензии на вывоз за рубеж для продажи по бартеру нефти, леса, цветных и редкоземельных металлов сомнительным и малоизвестным фирмам, зачастую созданным накануне. Помимо этого, в большинстве случаев лицензии выдавались заранее до заключения договоров с западными партнерами и без предъявления документов о наличии товаров. И цены назначались демпинговые в две тысячи раз ниже, чем существующие.

Tämä entinen KGB:n eversti jakoi ilman hallituksen antamia valtuuksia vähän tunnetuille, epäilyttäville ja usein vastaperustetuille firmoille lupia maaöljyn, metsätavaran, värimetallien (en ihan tiedä mitä metalleja tämä tarkoittaa, ehkä kuparia ja kultaa?) ja harvinaisten maametallien viemiseen maasta vaihtokauppatarkoituksessa. Lisäksi useimmissa tapauksissa vientiluvat myönnettiin ennen kuin ulkomaalaisten partnerien kanssa oli päästy yhteisymmärrykseen kaupoista, eikä tavaran olemassaolosta esitetty todistusasiakirjoja. Hinnatkin olivat polkuhintoja, kaksi tuhatta kertaa oikeita hintoja alempia.

Таможня, однако, товары за границу не пустила. Комиссия передает материалы расследования в прокуратуру и российский департамент кадров, так что Путину, возможно, придется держать ответ перед родным ему когда-то ведомством за то, что он лишил город 122 миллионов долларов.

Tulli ei kuitenkaan päästänyt tavaraa ulkomaille. Komissio luovuttaa tutkintamateriaalit Venäjän kaaderidepartementin (?) syyttäjänvirastolle, niin että Putin voi joutua vastaamaan omalle aikaisemmalle työnantajalleen siitä, että hän on pimittänyt kaupungilta 122 miljoonaa dollaria.

Наталья Шуляковская, публикация в газете Megapolis-Express от 8 апреля 1992 года

Natalia Shuljakovskaja, julkaistu Megapolis Express -lehdessä 8. huhtikuuta 1992
Title: Re: Ukrainan tilanne ja muut Venäjän ja Itä-Euroopan asiat
Post by: Vongoethe on September 23, 2014, 14:15:45
Tietoa värimetalleista (http://www.metallitrahaksi.fi/fi/tietoa-varimetalleista)

Wikisanakirja (http://fi.wiktionary.org/wiki/v%C3%A4rimetalli)

Quote
Substantiivi
värimetalli
1.(metallurgia) raskaista epäjaloista metalleista, rauta poislukien, käytetty nimitys

Etymologia

yhdyssana sanoista väri ja metalli

1. raskaista epäjaloista metalleista, rauta poislukien, käytetty nimitys[piilota]


##venäjä: цвтиые металл

Title: Re: Ukrainan tilanne ja muut Venäjän ja Itä-Euroopan asiat
Post by: Kourumies on September 27, 2014, 15:38:44
Venäjän trollisota. Huomatkaa, että Taloussanomien mies löysi housuistaan munat verrata Venäjän trollisotaa siihen toiseen nettitrollisotaan, jonka uhriksi joutui esimerkiksi minun urani mediassa:

http://www.taloussanomat.fi/uutiskommentit/2014/09/27/miten-tehoaa-suuri-isanmaallinen-trollisota/201413352/12

Quote
Demokraattinen, avoin yhteiskunta on nettivalehtelulle otollinen kohde. Jos kansalaismielipide kääntyy johonkin suuntaan, päättäjä joutuu aina ottamaan valitsijoidensa näkemykset huomioon.

Ilmiö koettiin jo 2011 eduskuntavaalien jälkeen. Perussuomalaisten menestystä pelästyneiden valtapuolueiden kielenkäyttö koveni. Äänestäjiä miellyttääkseen poliitikot alkoivat käyttää aiemmin persujargonina pidettyjä ilmaisuja maahanmuutosta tai eurokriisistä.

Samoin on käynyt tänä vuonna. Moni alun perin sosiaalisen median trollien toistama Ukrainan sodan propagandatermi – Krimin itsepuolustusjoukot, Suomen Nato-kiima, Kiovan fasismin nousu – päätyi nopeasti Venäjä-ymmärtäväisten vaikuttajien kieleen.
Title: Re: Ukrainan tilanne ja muut Venäjän ja Itä-Euroopan asiat
Post by: Kourumies on September 28, 2014, 12:10:25
Venäjä ohjailee vakoojiensa välityksellä uusnatsiliike Jobbikia. Jokohan nyt uskottaisiin, että Venäjän vaikutus voi olla persujen ja maahanmuuttokriitikoidenkin taustalla?

https://news.vice.com/article/the-far-right-european-lawmaker-and-the-three-decade-kgb-honey-trap

Quote
Béla Kovács, the far-right EU parliamentarian accused of espionage, said this week that a report into his wife's habit of collecting husbands — and nationalities — had turned their lives "into a spy movie script".

It certainly reads like one.

The man reportedly known as K.G.Béla to colleagues in Hungary's Jobbik party has consistently denied spying for Russia since the Hungarian government charged him with treason in May. However the revelation that his Russian wife Svetlana Istoshina is married to several influential figures including a Japanese nuclear physicist and an Austrian career criminal with links to the Soviet secret services, suggests that she was a KGB running agent, who caught Kovács in a "honey trap" for almost three decades.

When index.hu journalist András Dezso confronted him with Japanese newspaper archival evidence of his wife's marriage to Masanori Omiya, Kovács denied all knowledge of her secret life. "I think I have as many questions for her as you do," he said, insisting that he has never worked for any intelligence agency.

Kovács has never made a secret of his Russian sympathies, habitually calling for closer EU-Russian relations in his speeches at the European Parliament, where he is one of three Jobbik members (MEPs). He employs two Russians as interns, one of them his wife's nephew. President Vladimir Putin even invited him to serve as an election monitor for the dubious Crimea referendum in March.



Kovács has said he has a lot of questions for his wife following the report

There is growing evidence that Putin has backed Jobbik from its infancy, as the Russian leader seeks to undermine the EU — its main regional rival — with the help of far-right parties in former socialist states. One former member of the Hungarian national security committee has called Jobbik "a phony nationalist party that merely serves Russian interests."

Péter Krekó, the director at the Political Capital Institute, wrote a report on Putin's mission to increase Russian influence via the European far right in 2009, and is about to release another on its far-reaching social media campaign. "Russia's influence over the far right and far left in Europe has become stronger following the Ukrainian crisis. There have been four or five votes in the European Parliament voting against the association agreement with Ukraine," Krekó said, referring to the trade pact whose rejection by former Ukrainian president and Russian ally Viktor Yanukovych precipitated the Maidan uprising.

Kovács always had an emotional bond to Russia. He was reportedly born the illegitimate son of a Soviet soldier stationed in Hungary in 1960, and later adopted by Béla Kovács Sr and his wife. His adoptive father worked as a caretaker for the Hungarian diplomatic corps and was posted to the Hungarian embassy in Tokyo in the 1970s, bringing the teenage Kovács over to Japan in 1976.

According to Kovács, he and Istoshina met on a boat, while his father says he recalls them meeting at Sophia University in Tokyo. What he did not know at that time was that she had already been married to Omiya for four years. Istoshina was born to an average Moscow family and had met Omiya at the elite Moscow Institute for International Relations. Her marriage to the nuclear physicist was the legal basis of her Japanese citizenship.

Kovács's father told index.hu that Ishotina was a KGB courier, and that a Hungarian intelligence officer had confirmed this to him in 1980.

Konstantin Preobrazhenskiy, who was a KGB leader in Tokyo from 1980-85, told Dezso that the habit of securing foreign papers and traveling on them is the classic behaviour of a "running agent". Japan was one of the most important centers of such activities for the Soviets. The Japanese secret service was known to be one of the world's most porous after the Second World War, and was comprehensively infiltrated by the Soviets, he added. At at this time Soviet citizens could not travel abroad without the permission of the KGB or the Main Intelligence Directorate GRU, Preobrazhenskiy notes.

Kovács and his spouse moved to Vienna in 1980, a city which headquarters many major international organisations. Istoshina managed to obtain Austrian citizenship through a marriage to an underworld figure in 1986, while still living with Kovács. The couple then moved to Budapest in 2003.

Kovács joined the nascent far-right party Jobbik in 2005 and rapidly rose up through the party ranks, despite having no previous connections with Hungarian nationalists. At the time of Jobbik's first major international success in the European Parliamentary elections of 2009, Kovács had become a celebrated fundraiser within Jobbik, and was given control of the far-right party's finances. He also organized party leader Gábor Vona's trips to Moscow, where they met far-right Kremlin ideologues such as Konstantin Malofeev and Aleksandr Dugin.



The European Parliament is examining the case and will decide whether to lift the MEP's immunity

In 2010 he was chosen to replace a Jobbik MEP in Brussels. By then he had become highly valued within Jobbik for the amount of funding he had raised for the party.

Krekó recalled: "Even Jobbik's leader Gábor Vona has admitted on television that one of the reasons for his rapid rise was that he could put money into the party when they really lacked finances. Now they are a middle class party and also get party state funding, but then it was important. We didn't know where it came from but the more we know about Béla Kovács, the more likely it seems that the money came from Russia."

Kovács's own finances took a huge upswing too: at the time of his appointment he had been living in a small flat in downtown Budapest, but within two years had upgraded to a villa in scenic northern Hungary. His networking and language skills were valuable too. A polyglot - he speaks Hungarian, Russian, English, German, French, Polish and Japanese - Kovács established connections with leading far right figures Europe-wide, even masterminding the foundation of the Alliance of European National Movements.

Observers in Hungary suspect that its ruling party Fidesz has allowed the new allegations to come to light ahead of next month's local election, in order to hurt Jobbik's chances at the polls. A last-minute addition to the new Criminal Code that extends the scope of espionage to include EU institutions also seems strangely convenient for the ruling party. "It was obviously designed for that," Krekó said.

Kovács is awaiting trial on suspicion of "betrayal of the homeland," an offence which includes "maintaining a contact with a foreign government or organization in order to violate the constitutional order or the independence of Hungary." It is punishable by up to 15 years imprisonment. Jobbik deputy leader Elod Novák issued a statement insisting that "even if the story is true, he's just an innocent victim in this case."

Kovács meanwhile took to his Facebook page to address the reports on Tuesday evening, saying this "information is disinformation, which originates from the secret services," and calling the report "the Hungarian version of The Hound of the Baskervilles."

Krekó concluded: "I am pretty sure that KGBéla is not the only player. There are other Béla Kovács around, maybe not so obvious, or with this story like an action movie, but I think this is not just one isolated case."
Title: Re: Ukrainan tilanne ja muut Venäjän ja Itä-Euroopan asiat
Post by: Kourumies on October 13, 2014, 04:56:07
http://insidestory.org.au/russian-disinformation-and-western-misconceptions

Quote
A few weeks after Russian proxies in eastern Ukraine shot down a Malaysian airliner on 17 July, Russia infiltrated some 6000 more of its regular forces, including crack troops armed with high-tech weaponry, across the still-porous Ukrainian border. Whether it was an invasion or merely an incursion as some have argued, this operation sharply reversed the direction of the conflict in eastern Ukraine, which had been running increasingly in Kiev’s favour, and inflicted heavy losses on the Ukrainian forces. Western governments are in no real doubt about what has happened. And yet many Western media, and some in the commentariat, continue to treat these events as a mystery about which little is definitively known.

Under Vladimir Putin, Russia has wielded its “political technology” very effectively. (Roughly translated, this technique involves liberal doses of disinformation and outright lies to achieve a particular political objective.) Perhaps its crowning achievement has been what has become known as “hybrid warfare,” which has been on display in Ukraine, particularly since the lightning operation in Crimea over three weeks in February and March this year. In this kind of war, violence is relatively limited, and is cloaked behind a thick veil of information warfare (propaganda) to conceal not only its real perpetrators but also its purpose and objectives. (For an early and apt description and analysis of “hybrid warfare,” see Janis Berzins’s paper, “Russia’s New Generation Warfare in Ukraine: Implications for Latvian Defense Policy.”)

In the Crimean case, masked “little green men,” in fatigues without insignia, conducted highly skilled surgical strikes on key enemy targets with no warning or declaration. This was implausibly presented to a gullible international audience as a spontaneous outburst of resentment by mistreated ethnic Russians suffering under the heel of a “fascist” dictatorship set up by an illegal coup in Kiev.

The Kremlin has been labelling its enemies and victims as fascists for decades, seldom accurately but often with a high degree of success. Western media, with their ethic of “balance” (“the West says this, the X says that; we’re not sure which to believe, we’re just reporting the established facts”) always run the risk of blurring or even suppressing the real story that should be obvious to anyone with a passing familiarity with the region and the situation. What we get is along the lines of “Armed men in unmarked battle fatigues have seized key buildings and installations on the Crimean peninsula. Western governments are accusing Moscow of being behind the raids, a charge which Moscow strenuously denies.” Six months later, the same convention continues to be followed.

Western publics are becoming increasingly familiar with and irritated by “spin” from their own governments, for which they are developing much more sensitive antennae. They find it much more difficult to handle outright lies and deliberate disinformation (a semi-truthful narrative, with large currants of lies embedded in it) from sources far less scrupulous than governments of open democracies.

The same sometimes goes for Western officials, particularly of the post–cold war generation. Most EU officials and politicians, for example, have become used to tough and complex bargaining and the lengthy hammering out of difficult compromises. But this all takes place within a peaceful atmosphere, following clearly set rules, with limited corruption or outright dishonesty. They can be tough on trading issues, but they are typically much less confident and effective in dealing with seriously unscrupulous purveyors of security challenges. Theirs is a fine civilisation, configured for peace, but suddenly confronted with war. As in the 1990s with the Yugoslav wars, they seem a bit lost. It must be seriously doubted that they are equal to the task of dealing with Putin’s Russia.

There are two key reasons why Russian aggression and mendacity have worked so well thus far. First, there was the shock factor. Western leaders, officials and commentators were taken by surprise by the Crimean invasion, and only after further surprises are they starting to realise what they’re up against.

Second, there’s the ignorance factor. The global West has by and large always had a poor understanding of Russia. Putin’s neo-Soviet yet postmodern modus operandi has reinforced that longstanding state of affairs. Since declaring victory in the cold war, which was largely won for them by brave Russian reformers and their East European counterparts, the West has been content to relegate Russia and its neighbourhood to the easy basket.

When conflict between Russia and Ukraine first entered the Western public awareness earlier this year, and Australian media were looking to bone up quickly, I noticed that a lot of the questions directed to me reflected very serious, even crippling misunderstandings. I was frequently asked not to discuss the overall situation or some important development, but rather the threat posed by the neo-Nazis known to be dominant in Kiev. Or could I please comment on and explain the reasons why Russians were in fear of their lives in Eastern Ukraine, where most people were Russian or pro-Russian and were in despair because use of the Russian language had been banned? Was it not the case that we’d been given fair warning of all this because the Maidan had after all been dominated by violent, far-right anti-Semites? The questions were often so wide of the mark it was hard to know where to begin.

Sometimes the questions carried the unstated implication that these alleged social pathologies not only existed, but also were peculiar to the west of Ukraine and therefore presumably absent from Eastern Ukraine or Russia itself. Moscow was assumed to be looking on from a distance with understandable dismay – suggesting that we should be supporting the Kremlin in its stalwart opposition to “the fascists.”

Some reporters rightly grasped that corruption was a massive problem in Ukraine. But they did not seem to have picked up the fact that resentment of corruption was probably the biggest factor in the Maidan protests in Kiev, that disgraced president Viktor Yanukovych had been responsible for a huge increase in the problem in Ukraine, or that corruption was an equally great or greater problem in Russia.

Many were also understandably sharply focused on Ukraine’s economic fragility, and wanted to draw an inference that any Western involvement would be a waste of money and effort. Let the Russians take over the problem and bear the costs of it; why should the West get involved? They seemed unaware that Yanukovych had sharply accentuated Ukraine’s economic debacle, not least by his own entourage’s theft of mega-billions; or that the seizure of Crimea would make things much worse; or that “giving Ukraine to the Russians” might amount to the trashing of the entire post–cold war security system in Eurasia.

From the early media coverage it became apparent, in short, that some interlocutors had swallowed whole some of the cruder falsifications of Russian propaganda. Little of the commentary seemed to betray any awareness of the degree to which, since Putin’s return to the presidency in 2012, Russia was rapidly becoming a police state with increasingly fascist as well as neo-Soviet characteristics. Putin has become even more the Mussolini strongman with slightly flabby but much-exposed pectorals, heading what is essentially a one-party state; the rubber-stamp parliament, with grotesque stooge parties on the sidelines, has passed reams of repressive legislation while chorusing anti-Western slogans; all the human rights gains of the 1990s have been eliminated; Stalin and Stalinism have been restored to a place of public respect; and a uniform view of history and the world has been imposed on the media and the education system.

Since the fall of communism, Russia has of course become a society with gross inequality and increasingly run-down health and educational infrastructure. Under Putin, together with the Soviet flourishes, there has emerged a supplementary hard-right official ideology, sometimes misleadingly touted as “conservatism.” This comes complete with siren calls directed at the extreme right currently blossoming in many Western countries. This bizarre Putinist embellishment of the last few years, still scarcely noticed by many Western commentators, has featured, for example, visits from the French National Front’s Marine Le Pen to Moscow, where she was feted by senior members of the regime including deputy premier Dmitry Rogozin; xenophobic treatment of Russia’s own internal “immigrants”; gay-bashing, both literal and metaphorical, by tolerated vigilante groups and senior regime spokesmen respectively; elevation of the unreconstructed and KGB-penetrated Russian Orthodox Church to the role of joint arbiter with the state of public and international morals; and so on.

These persistent misconceptions of what Russia currently represents owe a lot to what the late Arthur Burns once memorably called “culpable innocence” – in other words, wilful ignorance by those presuming to instruct the vox populi – but also to Moscow’s skilful injection of huge amounts of well-crafted and adroitly directed propaganda. Russian propaganda now has a Goebbelsian supremo, Dmitry Kiselyov, who once proclaimed exultantly to his prime-time television audience, “Russia is the only country in the world that can reduce the United States to radioactive cinders.” In fact, nuclear intimidation has become a staple of Putinist propaganda, and not just at dog-whistle pitch. The buffoonish Vladimir Zhirinovsky, head of the Liberal Democratic Party (which is neither liberal nor democratic and scarcely a party, rather an officially cosseted Greek chorus), recently spoke publicly of a forthcoming major war in which Poland and other countries would be wiped off the map. Putin himself has declared publicly that Russia is a well-armed nuclear power and that no one should “mess with it.”

Crude as it often is, Russian propaganda is nonetheless highly skilful, much more so than its late-Soviet equivalent. It has acquired a mass international following through their external propaganda television network, Russia Today, a fact of which many Western officials remain unaware. There are, for example, eighty-six million subscribers to Russia Today in the United States alone. With a very large and expanding budget, Russia Today employs as presenters many Western native speakers who are enthusiastic critics of their own societies and enjoy the opportunity to go global, something they mostly would not have achieved on their home turf. Some of them are problematical, like a German “expert” who is editor of a neo-Nazi publication and one Karen Hudes, presented as a World Bank whistleblower, but who specialises in off-the-planet urban myths.

But Russia Today has also recruited more resounding names, including Julian Assange and Larry King. The formula is not to sing paeans of praise to Russia so much as to denigrate the alternatives. As the distinguished English Russia-watcher Oliver Bullough wrote in an excellent article on Russia Today for the New Statesman, “Deep into his fourteenth year in power, the president seems to have given up on reforming Russia. Instead he funds RT to persuade everyone else that their own countries are no better.”

Domestic Russian propaganda follows a similar strategy, with a strong and often xenophobic emphasis on the sins of other countries, especially in the West. As befits a KGB-run state, spymania is everywhere, and recently there has been a dismaying enthusiasm for finding and denouncing internal enemies (usually liberals and intellectual critics) and asserting they are in league with foreign enemies. Many Russians are becoming deeply anxious about what they see as a reversion to the atmosphere of the 1930s.

It has now been reported that a new series on predateli (traitors) has been launched on Russian television (where 85 per cent get their news), hosted by one Andrei Lugovoi, who is thought by British police to have been responsible for the polonium poisoning of the Kremlin critic Aleksandr Litvinienko. Moscow refused to extradite Lugovoi for questioning, then turned him into a national hero and arranged for him to become a member of the Duma (parliament) with immunity from prosecution. In keeping with his valiant service to Russia, host Lugovoi is introduced to his TV audience as chelovek-legenda (a living legend). Two days after reporting that news, the BBC reporter and his team were beaten up and detained for four hours in a provincial town in Russia.

For its part, the West has sharply downsized its own information outreach to Russian speakers over the past two-and-a-half decades. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and the BBC World Service, which once beamed effective alternative versions to Soviet bloc propaganda, have lost much of their erstwhile coverage and prestige, and even if they were to be restored, might struggle for at least some time to gain any traction.

The lies and half-truths that Moscow launched to justify its invasion of Crimea and eastern Ukraine have faded somewhat, but retain a tenacious half-life. Some journalists and commentators seem to have ideological or programmatic reasons for sticking with parts of the Russian narrative. Others may simply feel the need to observe “balance,” and while Russia is still cranking up parallel narratives to put into circulation, they will go to pains to remain agnostic about which version of reality is the truth.

There are some interesting sub-categories of observers who advance the Kremlin’s cause. A distressingly large number of academics and former officials, including retired diplomats suffering from what is known in the trade as localitis (a tendency to become an advocate for the country in which they serve rather than their own), seem to be conscious advocates of the Russian narrative. In some cases they appear to have picked up a secondary complication from what Gareth Evans once luminously described as “relevance deprivation syndrome,” or RDS.

Moscow liberals, for example, tend to see Henry Kissinger as having fallen victim to RDS. He has continued to visit Moscow regularly, where he is reputed to be given elaborate red carpet treatment. His comments on Russian matters always seem to display warm empathy for the dilemmas of his Kremlin friends. For example, he has been undertaking to do all he can to ensure that Ukraine does not choose any Westward orientation even though that is what a majority of its population emphatically wants. Kissinger and former US ambassador to Russia Jack Matlock came in for some sarcasm from the prominent Moscow political scientist Lilia Shevtsova for such pronouncements, which, as she points out, closely parallel the Kremlin’s own declarations.

Some academic strategists follow similar lines of reasoning and activism, seeking to explain why certain victims have to be victims and certain bullies have to be bullies. They deploy their acumen rather like the RDS diplomat by setting out their very close understanding of the mindset of the adversary: Mr Putin’s objectives are quite understandable, they argue, and surely should be accommodated. No similar understanding or empathy is apparent for the victims.

The intentions of these strategists may be good, and it is certainly important to understand the enemy in order to respond to him more effectively. But at a certain point, perhaps, the important thing becomes not how to understand Putin, but how to stop him before he destroys all the agreements and understandings on which the international security system rests.

Otherwise the strategist may fall prey to one of the Kremlin’s most tried and true negotiating principles: “what’s ours is ours, and what’s yours is negotiable.” In the Ukrainian case, this becomes “what’s now already yours is clearly yours (Crimea and perhaps much else besides) and you and we can negotiate between ourselves about what should be left for (in this case) the Ukrainians, over their heads and in their absence.”

Recently a group of empathetic US luminaries arranged to meet with some of their old Russian colleagues to discuss a peace plan for Ukraine. Without going into the merits of their plan, the idea that a group of Americans should presume to launch such an initiative, at a time when Russian aggression had ratcheted up further, and without seeking the participation of a single Ukrainian representative, was emblematic of their appeasement mind-set.

The line of argument of the Russlandversteher (those who understand Russia) is typically that Putin is the ruler of a very large nuclear-armed country, which they like to affectionately call “the bear,” whose concerns about Western policy are entirely reasonable. In any case, they argue, irrespective of how reasonable they are, we should be very wary of “poking the bear.” NATO’s expansion to the east was an intolerable threat to Russia, and Moscow is attacking its neighbours not because it has a revanchist program to reinstitute a Soviet Union–lite, but because of its understandable hostility to Western intrusions into its “backyard.”

The sensitivities of 140 million Russians are paramount in this train of thought, not the interests of the 160 or so million East Europeans who live between Russia and core Europe. That NATO expanded not because of NATO’s desire to threaten Moscow but in response to the desperate desire of many East Europeans to be freed from would-be autocrats-for-life like Lukashenko or Yanukovych, or from renewed Russian aggression, is not seen as relevant.

The expansion of NATO was, they assert, a breach of solemn promises to Moscow. Oral reassurances about NATO’s future intentions were certainly made in cautious language at a certain point, but in the very different context of prospective German unification, and before the peoples of the region had fully had their say. Once they had, new states emerged whose sovereignty and integrity Moscow duly agreed to respect. For wholly natural reasons, many such states have chosen to pursue some sort of Western vector. Outraged by these sovereign choices, Moscow has breached its undertakings to respect their sovereignty repeatedly. (The issue of the West’s supposed undertakings to help sustain Russia’s East European sphere of influence is discussed by Mary Elise Sarotte in the latest edition of Foreign Affairs and by Ira Straus at Atlantic-community.org.)

On the other hand, Ukraine did actually receive some written assurances, which are on the public record. In 1994, under pressure from Moscow and the Western powers, Kiev agreed to divest itself of its nuclear weapons in exchange for written assurances that it should never become the subject of economic or military coercion and that Russia, the United States, Britain and France would stand ready to defend it in any such event. Those assurances have proven worthless.

The argument that NATO’s expansion to the east is an intolerable provocation to Moscow is in any case inherently unpersuasive. If Moscow was indeed so afraid of NATO expansion, why was it not reassured by the fact that for many years NATO has observed the self-denying ordinance, inscribed in the NATO–Russia Founding Act of 1997, not to deploy any significant military hardware or personnel in the new member states. It is quite clear that the new members are the ones threatened by Russia’s aggressive revanchism under Putin, not the reverse. On 18 August, during a visit to Riga, Angela Merkel reaffirmed that the Act meant that even now, despite Moscow’s multiple aggressions and transgressions, there would be no permanent bases in the Baltic states regardless of their desperate pleas.

Russia, meanwhile, has continued its aggressive overflights in and near the air space of its western neighbours, NATO and non-NATO members alike, particularly though not only in the Baltic/Nordic region. It conducted a cyberwar with backup action by the Russian minority against Estonia in 2007, and this month it abducted an Estonian security official from Estonian sovereign territory just two days after President Obama visited Tallin to reassure Estonia that it would not be left to stand alone if it were subjected to attack. The invasion of Georgia by Russia in 2008 – after a long history of aggressive provocation by Moscow and its proxies in Abkhazia and South Ossetia – and the huge military exercises up against western neighbours’ borders in 2009 and 2013 – one of which concluded with a simulated nuclear strike on Warsaw – all have a similar resonance. So too, of course, do the frequent trade wars Russia has unleashed against erring former vassals.

The confidence with which it pursues these aggressive policies strongly suggests that while Russia may be angry about NATO’s expansion, it is not afraid of it. Moscow regards the territory it gained under the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact of 1939, whereby Hitler and Stalin divided up the East European countries between them, as still valid. Its stridently aggressive behaviour suggests that it wants to restore them to its patrimony, and that it regards NATO as not much more than a paper tiger in the region. Yet despite this sustained aggression, the compassion of the Russlandversteher for Russia’s imperial phantom limb syndrome knows no bounds.

Another frequent line of justification by Western commentators for Russia’s pursuit of its neo-imperial objectives is that we must be more sympathetic towards Russian policies, because if we’re not, they’ll gravitate even closer to China. Official Russian spokesmen and patriotic scholars have deployed this argument for decades through all kind of vicissitudes in Russo-Chinese relations. On one legendary occasion, a Soviet official in Canberra, enraged by what he perceived to be an attempt by local interlocutors to exploit the then Sino-Soviet divide to threaten Moscow with bad outcomes in Afghanistan, responded, “Just you wait – one day we’ll get back into bed with our Chinese comrades and screw you from both ends.” More cerebral versions of this argument have been heard increasingly from Moscow propagandists in recent months, adjusted to fit the circumstances of the time. And predictably, some Western commentators have adopted it.

A common Western counterstrike has latterly been to hint that Russia’s growing strategic partnership with China will lead to its becoming China’s junior partner or even its neo-colonial vassal loyally supplying raw materials. Russian polemicists are even beginning to deploy this argument in attack mode to argue that if Moscow does indeed become junior partner to Beijing, that will be the West’s fault, and to its detriment above all.

Western experts on the region are likely to have a better grasp of Russian than of Georgian, Moldovan, Estonian or even Ukrainian affairs. As a result they often acquire a bad case of secondary Russian chauvinism, taking on unconsciously something of the dismissive attitude of the vast majority of Russians, both the highly educated and the bovver-boys on the street, towards smaller ethnic groups within Russia and on its borders. This makes them vulnerable to Russian propaganda, even though they are of course aware of that phenomenon in general terms and would believe that they were making adequate allowance for it. It also makes them more receptive to the thought that any troublesome smaller neighbour should, if necessary, be put back in its box to keep the bear contented and friendly.

That doing so might not only undermine the post-1990 security system but also help to recreate an aggressive, confident, anti-Western and expansionary Russia does not seem to trouble them. Likewise, that it might lead to an unravelling of the Western strategic community, with countries betwixt and between Russia and the European Union increasingly choosing to accommodate Moscow’s aggressive or seductive overtures because they can see no prospect of its being resisted by anyone. Some East European NATO members, including Hungary, Slovakia and Bulgaria, seem to be already flirting with just such a fundamental reorientation.

Working journalists are less likely to be involved in working creatively towards peace in our time by launching hands-across-the-Bering-Strait initiatives. After a scramble to catch up at the outset of the Crimean invasion, for the most part they are doing a pretty good job. But the language used to describe the unfolding events in Ukraine continues to be impregnated with assumptions and misconceptions stemming ultimately from Russian disinformation, and above all from its remarkably successful efforts to conceal its direct involvement in the conflict in Ukraine.

“The civil war in Ukraine,” “the Ukrainian crisis,” “separatists,” “pro-Russians,” “rebels” – terms like these are loaded with semantic baggage that helps Moscow to maintain, even now, that it is only a concerned bystander, worried about the tragic fate of its sootechestvenniki (“fellow-countrymen”) and seeking to find an honourable way out for all concerned. Even before the attack on Crimea, Russia had been working hard through trade boycotts, manipulation of energy pricing and heavy pressure on its wayward protégé Yanukovych to force Kiev to abandon its arduously negotiated Association Agreement with the European Union.

When Yanukovych finally complied, and huge demonstrations broke out in response on what came to be known as the Euromaidan, Putin pushed him to introduce police state legislation modelled closely on Russia’s own. When that in turn failed, Yanukovych resorted to mass shootings in an effort to suppress the protests. Such actions had not previously been part of his repertoire, so this was probably also a response to pressure from Moscow. And when that too failed, he fled, leaving Kiev to the Maidan coalition

The Crimea operation bore even more of Moscow’s fingerprints. Despite the unmarked uniforms and heavy weaponry, it was clear that Russian special forces were heavily involved, as well as the armed Russian units stationed on the peninsula (obviously all a crass violation of the Black Sea Fleet Agreement with Kiev). There was also an admixture of local Russian patriots and compliant politicians and administrators, some local and some spirited in from across the border. Russia’s Federal Security Service, the domestic successor organisation to the KGB, quickly established its presence by calling on the population to denounce any of their neighbours who had supported the Maidan revolt. In the months since the annexation, Crimea has descended into an economically depressed police state, complete with aggressive homophobia and all the other hallmarks of loyal, provincial Putinism.

(tässä oli kuva alla käännetystä lentolehtisestä)

Leaflet distributed in Crimea by Russia’s Federal Security Service, or FSB. It reads, “Citizens of Russia!!!/ PATRIOTS!!!/ Though peace has been established on our land, there are still scum who want chaos, disorder, war…/ And they are living among us, go with us to the same shops, travel with us in the same public transport…/ It’s possible you know people who were against the return of Crimea to Russia/ Or/ Who took part in local Maidan activities/ You must inform the FSB immediately about such individuals at the following address:/ Franko Boulevard 13, Simferopol/ Or telephone 37-42-76 (you can remain anonymous)/ WE MUST STOP FASCISM!”

A fortnight after the annexation, a very similar pattern of events began to be enacted in the Donbass and other regions in Ukraine’s southeast. Here again Russians from Russia were conspicuous in the leadership, and the military professionalism of most of the attacks made it clear that Russia was directly implicated in precipitating, staffing and managing the takeovers. The proportion of local zealots participating in the events, however, was greater than in Crimea, which contributed to the indiscipline of the proxy forces and perhaps also to their penchant for common criminality and gross human rights abuses (abductions, beatings, disappearances, arrests) against local residents.

As Kiev recovered its composure and managed to improvise an effective military response, the polarisation of the population between east- and west-oriented naturally increased. But that does not make the conflict that resulted a civil war. Before Yanukovych began shooting protesters, and before Putin launched his hybrid war against Ukraine, there had been very little loss of life through politics in the quarter-century of Ukraine’s independence. There were certainly political differences between many in the west and east, but they had essentially been regulated through the ballot box.

Insofar as the conflict has or may become something more like a civil war, if with decisive interference and involvement from Russia, it will be a civil war conceived by artificial insemination. Nor can it properly be called a “Ukraine crisis.” Perhaps the later and violent phases of the Maidan could be so described, but once Yanukovych chose to flee, the crisis was over. What followed was not a crisis, and certainly not a Ukrainian crisis, but an invasion of Ukraine by Russia coupled with active and violent destabilisation, in which local recruits, stiffened and led by Russian troops and administrators, were carefully steered towards Moscow’s objectives.

Nor can the combatants of Russian persuasion accurately or properly be referred to as “separatists” or “rebels.” While the exact proportions are difficult to determine, it is Russians from Russia who have been calling the shots, while cross-border reinforcements of weapons, supplies and personnel have been maintained throughout. To be a separatist you have to be in your own country and trying to detach part of it to form an independent entity. The so-called “separatists” in Eastern Ukraine may be irredentists, but their movement cannot be considered as genuinely separatist. For similar reasons, a foreign soldier cannot be classed as a rebel.

There is a genuine terminological difficulty here, but the solutions in common use are tendentious and serve to conceal Moscow’s decisive involvement. In other such cases, the fighters might well be described as “fifth columnists” or even simply as traitors. There is, moreover, evidence that quite a number of the combatants are not “volunteers” but paid mercenaries, originating often from the Russian north Caucasus and shipped in across the border.

Such terms as “fifth columnists” (now commonly used by Russian officials to describe liberal dissidents, by the way) might seem harsh or not fully accurate given the authentic strength of local pro-Moscow sentiment in southeast Ukraine, and past vicissitudes and disputes relating to state boundaries. But “rebels” and “separatists” are not appropriate, and nor should a militiaman who has allowed himself to be recruited to fight for a foreign imperial power be entitled to any other semantic fig leaves. It is striking that Kiev’s preferred term “terrorists” is studiously avoided by the Western press, even though a much better case can be made for that than for most of the locutions actually used (violence against legitimate institutions and civilians, mass abuse of human rights, avoidance of identifying insignia, deployment of weapons in residential areas, and so on).

The terminological difficulty has led to the widespread use of the term “pro-Russian,” usually as an adjective, but sometimes even as a noun to describe those fighting against the Ukrainian armed forces and their volunteer militia supporters. But that too is inadequate. Many of them are quite simply Russians, for starters. Why not “pro-invaders”? I personally would favour “proxies” or even simply “Russians,” which is what most would identify as, and which describes exactly where they stand. The only difficulty with “Russians” is that many ethnic Russians in Ukraine do not want to betray their country or see their home region attached to Russia.

The most recent turn of events in the fighting has unleashed a further avalanche of misleading descriptions which again have the effect of concealing Russia’s real role in events. As will be recalled, there was a time in the early months when the proxies seemed to be sweeping all before them, the Ukrainian armed forces seemed demoralised as well as hopelessly ill-equipped, and the local populations in the east seemed not to be fighting back against the proxies, despite opinion polling which showed that even in Crimea a majority of the population did not want to become part of Russia.

Then the Ukrainian armed forces began to find their feet, supported by volunteer militias and the financial contributions of many ordinary Ukrainians, as well as some key oligarchs. From May to mid August, the Kiev forces gradually took control of the situation, forcing the proxies back, and even recapturing most of the lost ground in Donetsk and Luhansk provinces.

They faced difficult dilemmas in doing so. With the Russian forces well dug in, winkling them out in urban areas would inevitably require aerial and artillery bombardment to reduce the need for bloody street fighting. In addition Kiev would need to solicit and maintain the support of the oligarchs where possible, and also the enthusiastic but sometimes problematical volunteer detachments.

All such steps could increase the suffering and bitterness of both fighters and civilians in the disputed east. The pro-Kiev militias, like those on the other side, were in some cases led and/or manned by militant nationalists with hardline political views. Over the longer term, this could create a security problem for the Kiev government and reactivate the familiar Russian propaganda trope of “the fascists and Banderovtsy in the Kiev junta and Western Ukraine.”

A particularly worrying formation for Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko has been the force led by the populist nationalist Oleh Lyashko. Lyashko has been using his militia not only against the enemy but also as a tool in his campaigns for the presidency (where he did dismayingly well, finishing a distant third behind Poroshenko, but third nonetheless) and in the parliamentary elections scheduled for 26 October, where polling suggests his Radical Party will do well. He and his militiamen have been involved in kangaroo courts, direct actions of dubious legality and other abuses of human rights.

Though not a fascist in the ideological sense, Lyashko is certainly an extremely dubious asset for Poroshenko. With a shady past, including a criminal record and onetime connections with Yanukovych’s party, his prominence in the war has enabled him to throw out very aggressive political challenges to the Poroshenko bloc. Fortunately, his popularity seems to be declining, but it remains uncomfortably high.

Another very mixed blessing for Poroshenko is the Azov Battalion, which has fought bravely but really does display neo-fascist insignia and has members given to hard-right pronouncements. Lyashko himself is from Luhansk, and interestingly quite a lot of the recruits to such hardline pro-Kiev detachments are ethnic Russians from the east of the country. (For a balanced appraisal of hard-right militias generally in Ukraine, see Alina Polyakova’s recent article for the Carnegie Moscow Centre, “The Far-Right in Ukraine’s Far-East.”)

Armed conflicts have a tendency to generate irregular forces like these, particularly at critical junctures in immature semi-democracies like Ukraine’s. Ukraine is fighting for its independence, perhaps even ultimately for its existence, with no reliable allies and an enemy much stronger and better-equipped than itself. There are many more such militant and extremist formations in Russia and on the Russian side of the fight in Ukraine, but while Moscow doesn’t choose to rein them in for the most part, it undoubtedly can do so when it judges it expedient. Poroshenko, despite his strong presidential mandate, doesn’t enjoy a similar capacity and has many other extremely urgent and difficult problems with which to deal.

So why do Western commentators focus so disproportionately on the pro-Kiev bad guys? They may represent some sort of threat to their local Russian enemies, but not to the Russian regular army, which can and has inflicted devastating damage on them. Even less do they threaten the Western countries, whose commentators focus on them with such keen attention. The hardline nationalist militias and their political allies remain a country mile behind Poroshenko in public opinion ratings. The only thing that might make them serious contenders would be if Russia continues to inflict defeat, destruction and yet more trade wars on the elected Kiev authorities while the West looks on disapprovingly, but does nothing effective to save them.

Title: Re: Ukrainan tilanne ja muut Venäjän ja Itä-Euroopan asiat
Post by: Kourumies on October 13, 2014, 04:57:28
Tässä loput:

Quote
With some observers, it’s difficult to avoid the impression that for whatever reasons they want to exculpate the aggressor by blaming the victim. The blame-the-victim commentators are not much interested in the fact that the victor by an overwhelming margin in the recent presidential election was a moderate nationalist ready for compromises to preserve peace – perhaps even too ready in the view of some; or that the Ukrainian prime minister Arseny Yatseniuk, for example, is a pro-Western liberal economist and democrat, of partly Jewish heritage; or that the man who for a time took over as acting prime minister from Yatseniuk was a senior regional administrator called Volodymyr Groysman, also a Jew; or that at a time when the European Union is in considerable economic and political difficulty and losing much of its erstwhile allure, virtually the entire Kiev political class in its present configuration is desperate to join it.

By contrast with such groups as the Azov Battalion, the spectacularly bad guys among the Russian military colonists and their local supporters attract little enough media scrutiny. Take, for example, Igor Girkin (aka Strelkov), a Russian from Russia, former supremo of the self-styled Donetsk People’s Republic, the very name of which reeks of Stalinism. In his long career as a soldier of fortune pursuing Russian imperial causes in the most expansive sense, Strelkov has been reported to have involved himself with Bosnian Serb forces in ethnic cleansing of Bosnian Muslims during the Yugoslav wars. He is undoubtedly a Russian fascist, but also a nostalgic Stalinist, which makes him one of a hybrid type widespread in Russia at the moment.

Then there is the former Russian criminal Sergei Aksyonov, who is presiding over the communising of Crimea, also ignored by most of the West. Or take Alexander Borodai, another Russian from Russia, who miraculously emerged as the supremo in Donetsk and remained there till Moscow found it expedient to replace him with a local called Aleksandr Zakharchenko, a true-red loyalist to Moscow, but with a usefully Ukrainian-sounding surname. And probably most importantly, there is Vladimir Antyufeyev, the grey KGB eminence of Transnistria, and now, as of recently, of eastern Ukraine. Why is no one particularly aghast at their prominence?

Antyufeyev in particular gets minimal attention in the West. Yet his role as Moscow’s de facto viceroy in southeast Ukraine is obvious. It is clearly reflected in a recent picture of Strelkov holding court with his uber-imperial followers back in Russia where he is “on leave,” a photograph displaying the attractive features of Antyufeyev on the wall in the background, where Stalin might once have been.

Despite the country’s overwhelming burdens, for months the Kiev forces continued to make steady progress towards their objective of encircling Donetsk and Luhansk cities with a view to cutting them off from resupply across the Russian border. Moscow responded by changing their proxies’ leaders and providing more high-tech weaponry. This led to some spectacular victories in local skirmishes by the Russians as well as to rapidly growing downings of Ukrainian aircraft. But it also led to the MH17 disaster, which was obviously not a triumph for Moscow. Until well into August and despite the successive waves of Russian intervention, Kiev’s steady counterinsurgency progress seemed to be maintained.

Then suddenly came a 180-degree shift in the fortunes of war. Russia introduced into Ukraine a large number of its regular troops, probably some 6000 or so all up, including crack special forces, and with more high-tech weaponry. Abruptly, wholly against the flow of play, the beleaguered “rebel” forces turned their increasingly dire situation around. The siege of Donetsk was broken, and a large concentration of mainly volunteer pro-Kiev units near the strategic town of Ilovaisk was forced to retreat. As they retreated, responding apparently to an invitation to exit via a “humanitarian” corridor, they were ambushed by Russian forces with greatly superior weaponry, resulting in a massacre of hundreds of men and total destruction of their weapons and military transport.

The survivors of the Ilovaisk massacre feel bitter that they did not receive more back-up from Ukrainian forces, a resentment that may create strains as volunteer militias come to be reintegrated in the armed forces or civilian society of any post-conflict Ukraine. It was an attack well-executed and well-directed in every sense by highly professional Russian troops, part of a broader intervention that forced Poroshenko to sue for a ceasefire. He has been on the back foot ever since, offering concessions to the “separatists” and desperately pleading, largely in vain, for more help from the European Union and NATO.

Western countries, Amnesty International and other authorities have all said that this turnaround was the result of a clandestine but large cross-border deployment of Russian troops and armour. Russian internet sources and surviving independent Russian media and blogs accept the sharply increased Russian involvement as the cause of the sudden “rebel” triumph. The Russian Committee of Soldiers’ Mothers, one of the few politically engaged NGOs still working effectively, has claimed that some 200 soldiers from regular Russian formations have now perished in the fighting in Ukraine. For making such a damaging claim, the St Petersburg branch of the NGO has already been denounced by the regime as a “foreign agent” (translated from the 1930s Stalinese, “spy” or “traitor”).

Among the Russian casualties have been members of the crack Pskov Paratrooper Division. A (legal) opposition politician in Pskov who attempted to view the graves of anonymously buried special forces soldiers there was beaten up by “unknown assailants” – a trademark of the Federal Security Service – and left unconscious with a fractured skull. The war is increasingly unpopular in Russia, and Putin is continuing to keep it hush-hush, both for that reason, and to maintain the threadbare fiction of Russia’s non-involvement.

The current shaky armistice, which the Russian side in particular has been breaking in an attempt to regain control of Donetsk airport and other strategic targets, is unlikely to be sustained. Poroshenko’s effort to shore it up by offering further concessions to the “separatists” may give Kiev some further respite, but that too is unlikely to remain stable for long. The only thing that will ensure stability is for him to further surrender Ukrainian sovereignty, recognising the “rebels” as a legitimate Ukrainian force representative of the local populations (which they never have been – their referenda were a farce), and accepting Russia as the paramount guarantor of stability in the region; in other words, in addition to the loss of Crimea, accepting that Ukraine would now have a large frozen conflict in its industrial heartland.

Even that would almost certainly not be the end of it, judging by the experience of frozen conflicts elsewhere in the post-Soviet area. The corresponding parts of Moldova and Georgia have been used as tools to try to block any Westward movement by those countries. A frozen conflict can also, if and/or when the need or opportunity presents, be rapidly unfrozen to form a Piedmont in a wider irredentist push. Georgia presented a classic case and Moldova may soon provide another.

Russia’s diplomatic weapon of choice in establishing a frozen conflict is the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, or OSCE, which has the inestimable advantage over NATO of not including the United States and can be configured so that Russia can convert its veto (which it uses very liberally) into a controlling interest in all its processes. Thus, the recent peace discussions brokered by the OSCE are unlikely to deliver either a permanent settlement or a just one. The OSCE is not in the business, for example, of suggesting that Russia was not a legitimate player in the “peace process” to begin with.

The OSCE format was publicly launched by Putin in May, when he welcomed in Moscow a visit by the Swiss president and chairman of the OSCE for 2014, Didier Burkhalter, and an OSCE blueprint for a settlement which Burkhalter brought with him. At that time, the Kiev forces had started to turn the tide against the Russian proxies, and Putin clearly was looking to hit the pause button before things got any worse for his proxies. The OSCE format keeps the United States out of the front line of the Ukraine issue, and the formation of an OSCE Contact Group consisting of a Swiss OSCE chair, Russia, the Donetsk and Luhansk so-called People’s Republics and Ukraine has enabled Putin to shape negotiations with Poroshenko in what is for Moscow a very favourable context.

Russia’s frequent use of its veto to pressure the OSCE and the lack, over time, of any effective US or Western push-back on OSCE involvement in frozen conflicts have ensured that the OSCE is now very sensitive to Russia’s priorities. Germany and France, who happen to be two of the EU/NATO countries most understanding of Russia’s security requirements, have had a modest involvement in the Contact Group process, mainly in pressing Ukraine to become engaged. But Britain, like the United States, is not involved. Thus Berlin’s Russlandversteher approach is virtually the only Western game in town. The Contact Group is headed by Swiss diplomat Heidi Tagliavini, who produced a report on the Georgian war of 2008 which, in the view of some observers, tended to whitewash much of Russia’s responsibility for that event and for the extensive destruction it visited on Georgia.

In this unpromising OSCE format, not being comfortable in situations where force has been or may be deployed, Germany is looking for a peaceful solution and is happy to entrust the task of mediation between aggressor and victim to the OSCE. Kiev, however, is clearly outnumbered. At one point, the Group even brought into the talks as a separate participant one Viktor Medvedchuk, a close friend of Putin’s and the most pro-Moscow politician in Ukraine, where he has almost no popular support.

For Putin, the latest purpose, as in May, is to present Russia again as a concerned, peace-loving observer while this time locking in his sudden gains on the battlefield. The timing of his back-of-the-envelope peace proposal, reportedly sketched out on a flight to Mongolia, was also meant to weaken and further divide the leaderless and irresolute Western leadership just as NATO was holding a crucial summit on 4–5 September in Wales and the European Union was struggling to reach agreement on another round of sanctions.

In this, Putin was highly successful. Again the huge advantages of a single, autocratic leadership over broad coalitions of poll-ridden democracies were in evidence. After protracted agonies about whether to impose further sanctions on Russia for again invading Ukraine, the European Union finally approved a package, but in the same breath said that the sanctions might be reviewed within weeks if the ceasefire holds. That the “ceasefire” followed another damaging Russian military expedition was, like the Crimean annexation, seemingly forgotten or forgiven.

Brussels also mysteriously suspended till the end of 2015 the implementation of the DCFTA (Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement) with Ukraine, to which it had previously accorded accelerated passage. The reason for this unexpected additional reward for Russia’s bad behaviour was seemingly to enable further exhaustive discussions aimed at accommodating the Russians’ objections to the free trade deal. Moscow has demanded a virtual rewrite of roughly a quarter of the huge and exhaustively negotiated agreement.

The European Union has previously maintained that the agreement would not damage Russia’s trade and, more generally, that it could not, as a matter of principle, allow third parties to interfere in its negotiations with other countries. The Poroshenko government agreed to the postponement, reportedly because it feared that otherwise Moscow was planning to hit it with a crippling all-out trade war. The European Union has cushioned the blow of the postponement by extending trade concessions to Ukraine over the intervening months.

Nonetheless, the postponement sends yet another discouraging signal to Ukrainians and other countries under Russian pressure. A deputy Ukrainian foreign minister resigned over the issue, which is not reassuring on the question of what backroom deals were struck to secure Poroshenko’s agreement. The postponement also offers further encouragement to Russia to maintain its present aggressive stance towards the countries to its west, and their Western friends.

NATO, for its part, stalwartly reaffirmed that it would not deploy any boots permanently on the ground on the territory of the new members, but that it would provide “reassurance” in other ways. It also confirmed that it would continue not to supply any weapons to the beleaguered Kiev administration. It undertook, on the other hand, to provide non-lethal aid worth US$20 million. Subsequently, the Ukrainian defence minister asserted that some individual NATO countries were undertaking to supply weapons to Ukraine, but the countries he mentioned have denied it.

Last week Poroshenko visited the United States where he renewed his appeal to the Obama administration for lethal aid to resist Russian aggression on his country. He was well received, particularly in Congress, but his appeal was unsuccessful, though he did receive a further US$53 million in non-lethal aid. As he said when he addressed Congress, “Please understand me correctly. Blankets, night-vision goggles are also important. But one cannot win the war with blankets… Even more, we cannot keep the peace with a blanket.”

Short of another muscular intervention from Moscow, a trade war alternative is always near to hand. Recently Russia sharply reduced its gas exports to Poland, putting a stop to reverse-flow imports by Ukraine through Poland and Slovakia to replace the flows through Ukrainian pipelines that Russia blocked last June. If Poroshenko does not give satisfaction in the peace talks, the economic stranglehold on Ukraine can be strengthened at will, a far more immediate and deadly weapon than any Western sanctions that have yet been devised against Russia.

Conscious of his weak hand internationally and the forthcoming elections domestically, Poroshenko is bending over backwards to stay out of trouble. Following up on the Minsk ceasefire agreement of 5 September, he managed to push through legislation on 16 September offering a guarantee of autonomy for three years to local government in areas of Donetsk and Luhansk controlled by the proxies. The law is carefully drafted to avoid legitimising the authority of the “people’s republics,” but is domestically costly for Poroshenko even so, and will increase the criticism of him from radical rivals in the run-up to the vital parliamentary elections on 26 October. It is also very unlikely to satisfy Moscow or most of its proxies, which are continuing military actions to seize more territory beyond the ceasefire lines.

Meanwhile, Russia is at work in the Baltic states. Despite Barack Obama’s visit to Tallin, where he delivered a ringing address – a genre in which he excels – Moscow has launched a concerted series of provocations, beginning two days later with the abduction from Estonian territory of an Estonian anti-corruption official, and his almost immediate parading before Russian TV cameras as a spy.

Soon after, a senior Moscow official responsible for “human rights,” Konstantin Dolgov, visited Riga where he delivered an aggressive speech denouncing Latvian “fascism” and alleged mistreatment of the Russian minority, and calling on the Latvian Russians to show their “martial spirit.” (In fact they are already doing so; a high proportion of Latvian Russians support the annexation of Crimea, and there have been reports that some are being recruited to fight in Ukraine.) Given the atrocities committed by Moscow against the Baltic peoples after the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact of 1939, these are remarkably brazen and threatening claims.

Russia has recently revived and is pursuing through Interpol arrest warrants against Lithuanian citizens who refused to serve in the Soviet/Russian army at the time of Lithuanian independence. And it has in the last few days seized a Lithuanian fishing vessel, which the Lithuanians allege was in international waters at the time, and tugged it off to Murmansk with twenty-eight people on board.

So, a Baltic trifecta. Regardless of how these events develop further, their common purpose appears to be at the very least to suggest to the Baltic governments that their distinguished visitors and supporters live far away and can’t or won’t do much to help them.

With Western attention again becoming absorbed in very difficult Middle Eastern issues, it is hard to be optimistic about the further outlook for Ukraine – or for the future of European values in the post-Soviet space. •


JOHN BESEMERES
John Besemeres is an Adjunct Fellow at the Centre for European Studies at ANU.